WBTN heads into its August 11 earnings print with options traders positioned more defensively than at any point in recent months, even as the lending market has loosened considerably from its tightest levels.
The sharpest signal comes from options. The put/call ratio has climbed to 1.82 — well above its 20-day average of 1.05, and roughly 1.5 standard deviations above the norm — reflecting a meaningful shift toward downside protection in the days before the release. That caution follows a brutal month for the stock: WBTN has fallen 18% over the past 30 days to close at $9.45, though it bounced nearly 6% on Monday. The one-week picture is essentially flat, suggesting the rebound has stalled rather than built momentum.
The borrow market tells a different story from a month ago. Availability has tightened sharply in the past week, dropping to just 15% — meaning roughly one share remains available to borrow for every six already lent out — but that is still meaningfully looser than the near-zero availability seen in late June, when readings dropped below 5%. Cost to borrow has fallen almost 48% over the past month to 4.8%, a signal that demand to short the name has eased. Short interest itself has drifted lower, now at 3.6% of the free float after shedding about 15% over the past month. The short score, at 84.9, remains elevated relative to the broader universe, but the direction of travel in borrowing costs and SI suggests active short sellers have been reducing rather than adding pressure.
The fundamental debate is harder to pin down without fresh analyst guidance — the most recent consensus data is several months old, and the last target moves came in early March when Evercore ISI lowered its target to $15 while maintaining an Outperform rating. That target, and others from late 2025 rounds of upgrades at Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, now sit well above the current price at $9.45, implying material upside — but the stock has continued to drift lower through that consensus, which itself tells a story. On the positive side, EPS surprise ranks in the 91st percentile of the universe, and forward EPS estimates have improved sharply, pushing EPS momentum scores into the top 12%. The ownership structure adds another layer: NAVER Corporation and SoftBank together control over 82% of shares, leaving a relatively thin free float and concentrating influence over the stock's direction in the hands of two strategic holders.
Historical reactions offer limited precedent here. The two most recent prints saw divergent first-day moves — a 4.4% gain in May 2026 that reversed into a 4.3% five-day loss, and a 2.8% drop in June 2026 that deepened to a 6.6% loss over five days. That pattern points to a stock that has struggled to hold post-earnings gains, with the multi-day drift lower being the more consistent feature.
The print is therefore less a test of whether WEBTOON is growing and more a question of whether monetization metrics and margin progress can give the bulls enough to finally close the gap between where analysts have been pointing and where the stock has been trading.
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