ITR heads into its August 12 earnings report on the back of a strong sector rally — but with analysts pricing in far more upside than the market has yet delivered.
The stock has climbed 16% over the past month to CAD 3.61, riding a broad precious metals wave. Peers FVI, WPM, and AEM all posted weekly gains of 15–21%, with EDR leading the group at nearly 26% on the week. ITR kept pace but gave back 2.4% on Tuesday alone, suggesting the rally may be running into some resistance at current levels. The borrow market is not a factor here — availability is exceptionally loose at roughly 797%, meaning there are nearly eight shares available to lend for every one already borrowed. Cost to borrow has drifted lower over the past month, now running below 0.9%. Short interest, at just over 1% of the free float, is negligible and tells no meaningful story heading into the print.
The real tension is between where the stock trades and where analysts think it belongs. The consensus price target of CAD 6.03 implies roughly 67% upside from Tuesday's close — a gap that frames the bull case in stark terms. Bears would point to the stock's track record: the May 2026 earnings print triggered a 2.5% one-day drop and a near-15% five-day slide. That pattern suggests the market has repeatedly found reasons to sell into results, even as the longer-term analyst thesis remains intact. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.4x sits near the lower end of its recent range, which gives valuation bulls some ammunition, though the multiple has expanded modestly over the past 30 days as the stock rallied into today's report.
Institutional ownership adds a layer of interest. Franklin Resources added 2.17 million shares through June, while Van Eck Associates initiated a position of 4.8 million shares as recently as July — a notable new entrant for a company of this size. On the insider side, Executive Chairman George Salamis bought 25,000 shares at CAD 2.99 in mid-July, his second open-market purchase in recent months, adding to a net positive insider flow of roughly 27,300 shares over the past 90 days. The buying cluster at levels well below the current price is a constructive signal, though the modest dollar amounts limit how much weight it can carry.
Today's print will test whether ITR can begin closing the wide gap between its market price and analyst targets — or whether, as in May, the results give the market another reason to look elsewhere in the gold sector.
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