POET Technologies reports earnings today with one of the most charged short-side setups in the semiconductor space — more than a fifth of its free float is currently sold short, and the cost to borrow those shares has nearly doubled in a month.
Short interest is the dominant story heading into this print. Bears have steadily built their position, with 21.6% of the free float now short — up roughly 7% from a month ago and rising again in each of the past two sessions. Borrow availability has tightened materially over recent weeks, with the lending pool running at just 36.8% availability, compared to readings above 50% for much of late June. That is still not a fully squeezed market — the 52-week low hit 2.4% — but the trend is clearly tightening. Cost to borrow has climbed from roughly 0.38% in mid-July to just above 1%, nearly doubling in a month. The ORTEX short score of 66.4 ranks in the bottom 5th percentile of all stocks, underscoring how bearish the signal composite has become.
Bulls and bears are fighting over a fundamentally different view of the same company. The bull case rests almost entirely on the optical interconnect opportunity — POET's platform-level approach to photonic integration addresses a real demand surge in AI data centre connectivity, and ORTEX factor data shows the stock ranks in the 89th percentile for EPS surprise consistency. The mean analyst price target of $17.50 against a current price of $8.59 implies substantial upside, though the most recent formal analyst actions on record date from late 2024 and should not be read as fresh conviction. Bears focus on what the valuation multiples already confirm: POET is pre-revenue in any meaningful sense, burning cash, and trading at a price-to-book near 14x on fundamentals that include a deeply negative return on assets. The stock is up more than 40% year-to-date, and that run itself is part of what has attracted short sellers.
The ownership picture adds an interesting wrinkle. Jane Street and Citadel together hold over 12% of shares — both positions are almost entirely new, reported as recently as mid-year — while Marex built a 5.3% stake as well. These are trading-oriented holders rather than fundamental long-term investors, which means they can rotate quickly. Insider activity has been small and mostly award-related; a Chief Level Officer sold $81,000 worth of stock in mid-June at $14.73, a price the stock has since fallen well below. Among correlated peers, HIMX and SITM have each gained 15% and 25% on the week respectively, while SMTC fell nearly 6% — the group is moving in different directions, leaving POET's flat-to-slightly-positive week looking relatively muted. Options traders are not defensive here: the put/call ratio of 0.18 is barely above its 20-day average and sits well below the 52-week high of 0.43, suggesting the options market is not pricing heightened caution.
The print will test whether POET can deliver any commercial progress — partnership announcements, design wins, or revenue visibility — that justifies a stock trading at $8.59 with 21% of its float sold short and a 30-day trend of bears adding to their positions.
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