ORCL has given back ground this week, slipping 3.7% on Tuesday to $145.48 — and the short block that has stubbornly refused to cover through two consecutive 13% weekly gains is still sitting there, essentially untouched.
The most striking feature of this setup remains the patience of the bears. Short interest ended the week at roughly 50.6 million shares, or 1.77% of the free float — fractionally lower than the 50.7 million logged on August 7, and virtually unchanged across a month in which the stock swung from $114.99 to nearly $150 and back. Bears have neither pressed into the rally nor taken profits on the way down. The borrow market gives them no reason to panic: cost to borrow has fallen 36% on the week to just 0.32%, and availability is as loose as it gets, with lending supply comfortably exceeding demand by an order of magnitude. There is no squeeze pressure here. The shorts are waiting, and waiting cheaply.
Options traders have shifted to a mildly more bullish lean in recent sessions. The put/call ratio has dipped to 0.78, modestly below its 20-day average of 0.80 — a z-score of roughly -0.9, so not extreme in either direction. What is notable is the directional trend: the PCR was consistently above 0.90 through late June and early July, touching 1.00 on July 1. The drift lower since then points to a gradual rotation from hedging into call exposure as the stock recovered. With Tuesday's pullback, it will be worth watching whether that trend reverses ahead of the September 4 earnings date.
The Street remains broadly constructive but with growing caution on valuation at current levels. Twenty-eight analysts carry a Buy or equivalent, against seven Holds, and the consensus mean target is around $247 — implying roughly 70% upside from Tuesday's close. That gap is unusually wide and reflects the severity of the post-June earnings de-rating rather than fresh bullish conviction. The most recent meaningful move came from UBS on August 6, where analyst Karl Keirstead cut his target by $40 to $245 while keeping his Buy rating — a signal that even believers are recalibrating after the June print. CLSA initiated at Hold with a $145 target in late July, effectively calling the stock fairly valued at current levels. Bernstein and Barclays sit toward the higher end of the range with targets of $325 and $250 respectively, both maintained after June earnings. The bull case rests on AI infrastructure demand growing 243% year-over-year, cloud revenue of $8.9 billion expanding at 41%, and FY27 guidance pointing to $90 billion in revenue. Bears point to execution risk on AI monetisation, competitive pressure in core database markets, and a valuation — trailing PE near 15, EV/EBITDA around 8.8 — that still prices in a recovery that has yet to materialise in the share price.
One note on consistency with the prior article: the short interest figure has not materially changed. The August 10 note correctly identified that the short block was intact at 50.7 million shares; the latest reading of 50.6 million confirms that pattern holds. What has changed is that the stock has now pulled back from last week's close of $147.02, so the shorts' paper profit — having entered near the June earnings high — is marginally improving again.
The next concrete event is September 4 earnings, and after a 10.5% single-day fall on June 10 and a further 3.7% over five days following the March print, the historical reaction data suggests the market has consistently punished ORCL on results day. Whether the current recovery has re-set expectations enough to change that dynamic, or whether the 50-million-share short block is positioned precisely for another miss, is the question the next three weeks will answer.
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