Coherent Corp. has reported earnings — the event three consecutive ORTEX notes flagged as the moment of reckoning — and the short book is still growing rather than retreating.
The stock closed Tuesday at $328.57, roughly flat with the pre-earnings level documented in Monday's note ($325.15), and up about 1.5% on the week. That is a strikingly muted reaction given the volatility of the preceding fortnight. Bears who rode through the full round-trip — from $325 in early July, up to $379, back to $325, and now $328 — have effectively broken even on price. But on positioning, they have not stood still. Short interest climbed to 6.46% of free float as of August 11, the highest reading in the 90-day window tracked here, with roughly 10.2 million shares on loan. The week-on-week increase of 14.9% is the sharpest single-week jump in the dataset. This is not a short book scaling back after a difficult month; it is a short book pressing its conviction into and through the print.
The lending market continues to offer no constraint on that conviction. Borrow availability, while it has tightened meaningfully from the extraordinary readings of late July (above 3,500%), remains genuinely loose at around 1,407% of short interest — meaning there are still roughly fourteen shares available for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is unchanged at 0.41%, near the lower end of the past month's range. The availability tightening over the past week (down 26%) is worth watching directionally, but the absolute level still represents ample room for bears to add without any mechanical squeeze pressure materialising. Options positioning has nudged higher — the put/call ratio is at 1.29, just above its 20-day average of 1.24 and about one standard deviation above the mean — reflecting mild additional hedging demand post-earnings rather than any extreme directional bet.
The Street remains firmly in the bull camp, though the most recent major move in analyst targets predates the past two weeks of volatility. Raymond James raised its target to $435 in early July, and multiple Buy-rated firms — Rosenblatt at $425, Stifel at $412, Citigroup at $420, and Rothschild initiating at $455 — have targets well above the current print. The mean consensus target is $394.61, implying roughly 20% upside from current levels. The notable outlier is Morgan Stanley, which maintained an Equal-Weight rating with a target of $290, a meaningful discount to where the stock trades today. EPS momentum factor scores are extraordinary — both 30-day and 90-day readings rank in the 96th and 97th percentiles respectively — while the EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed about 4.5 turns over the past 30 days, reflecting how fast the stock has moved relative to underlying earnings estimates. The bear case from the Benzinga data centres on US-China trade exposure and a recent controversy surrounding supplier Innolight; the bull case rests on AI data-centre demand and co-packaged optics optionality.
Insider activity adds a layer of nuance. The 90-day net selling total runs to roughly $13.7 million across multiple executives — the CEO sold $11 million worth in early June at $426, and the CFO has sold at three separate price points since April. None of the trades carry high significance scores and they may reflect pre-set plans, but the direction is worth noting: insiders have been consistent sellers on strength throughout the rally. No purchases appear in the recent history.
Among peers, the post-earnings session produced a split picture. JBL gained nearly 6% on the day, the strongest mover in the group, while KN fell 4.5% on the week and AEIS similarly gave back ground. COHR's flat-to-slight-gain outcome looks relatively resilient against that backdrop, though GLW and FN — its two highest-correlation peers — both closed marginally lower on the week, suggesting the AI-optics sector has not staged a broad recovery.
The next variable to watch is whether the short book — now at a 90-day peak despite the earnings print passing without incident — begins to unwind as the immediate catalyst clears, or whether bears find fresh justification in whatever guidance was issued with the results.
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