SMCI: Post-Earnings Analyst Upgrades Drive Target Hikes, But Shorts Hold Firm

The lending market has shifted direction since the pre-earnings notes. Availability has eased to 168% — loose enough that there is no meaningful squeeze pressure. That is up from the 142% reading on Friday, before the print, and back near the 170%-plus range that prevailed through most of late July. Borrowing costs dropped further to 0.45%, their lowest reading in the 30-day window. Both moves signal that demand for borrows did not intensify on the earnings result. Short interest itself crept up slightly to 94.2 million shares, or 15.8% of the free float — a marginal increase on the week but well within the range it has held since the large partial cover around July 23-24. The structural picture is unchanged: a meaningfully reduced but still elevated short base, sitting on cheap borrows with ample room to maneuver.

The one genuinely new signal is in options. The put/call ratio spiked to 0.82 on Tuesday — more than four standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.69, and the highest reading in almost a year. Every prior note this week flagged defensive options positioning heading into the print; that defensiveness has not unwound despite the stock closing up 0.4% on the day. The PCR had been tracking in a tight 0.67-0.70 band through all of July before this spike, which makes the persistence notable. Whether this reflects residual hedging, new downside bets post-earnings, or simply end-of-day options flow is unclear — but the signal contradicts the relatively calm short and borrow market.

Close peer DELL had a rougher week, falling 5.6%, while HPE added 3.8%. SMCI itself slipped 0.3% on the week — roughly flat, which reads as an underwhelming post-earnings response for a stock that had rallied 11% into the print. The ORTEX short score has nudged down fractionally to 62.97 from a week-ago reading near 64, suggesting the short-side pressure has eased marginally but remains well above neutral. Forward EPS momentum scores are exceptional — 88th percentile over 30 days, 100th percentile on 12-month forward year-on-year growth — which is what bulls point to when arguing the stock deserves a re-rating. The short score rank of just 5 (out of 100) confirms shorts still view this as one of the more attractive targets in the sector.

With no next earnings date yet announced, the key variables to track are whether the analyst target-raise wave translates into rating upgrades — not just number-bumping — and whether short interest continues its slow drift higher or finally breaks below the 90 million-share level that has acted as a floor since the July cover.