GM enters mid-August with shorts at their lowest level in months and a Street consensus that has moved sharply higher — yet the stock is trading below most freshly raised price targets, keeping the bull case very much alive ahead of an October earnings date.
The most striking development this week is the speed of the short-side retreat. Short interest fell 20% in a single session on August 11, dropping to 2.1% of the free float — roughly 19.8 million shares. That is down from around 26 million shares held short through late July. The move is notable less for the absolute level, which was never elevated, and more for its pace: a 20% one-week decline signals active cover rather than natural decay. The borrow market confirms there is no pressure behind this unwinding. Cost to borrow has fallen 26% over the past week to just 0.36%, among the cheapest it has been all month. Availability is effectively unlimited — the lending pool holds shares far in excess of what is being borrowed. Short sellers are leaving voluntarily, not being squeezed out.
Options positioning reinforces the broadly constructive tone. The put/call ratio has drifted to 0.69, slightly below its 20-day average of 0.71, and the z-score is a mild -0.6. That is close to its 52-week low end — call volume is running modestly heavier than puts. There is no meaningful hedging build heading into the next catalyst.
The Street side of the picture is where momentum has really gathered. After GM's Q2 earnings print on July 21 — which delivered an 8.4% single-day gain and nearly 19% over the following five sessions — analysts responded with a wave of target raises. JP Morgan lifted its target from $110 to $120. Goldman Sachs moved from $91 to $103, maintaining Buy. Barclays raised to $110. Jefferies upgraded outright from Hold to Buy and set a $99 target. Even the bear on the Street, Wells Fargo, nudged its Underweight target a dollar higher to $61. Tigress Financial — admittedly not a bellwether — set the high-water mark at $130. The consensus mean now sits around $100, against a current price of $89.35, leaving roughly 12% implied upside to the average. The factor score on analyst recommendation differential ranks in the 97th percentile, reflecting how unusually lopsided the constructive skew has become. Forward earnings momentum is also strong: the 12-month forward EPS growth score ranks 92nd percentile. The valuation, at a trailing PE of around 6.3x and EV/EBITDA near 7.9x, remains undemanding even after a 15% one-month price gain.
Peer context sharpens the picture. F fell 1.8% on the week and edged lower on the day, while German peers PAH3 and VOW3 also slipped 2-3% over the same period. GM's flat-to-up week stands out against that backdrop, suggesting the post-earnings re-rating is still holding relative to the broader auto sector.
The previous note from August 5 flagged the insider selling cluster — CEO Mary Barra, President Mark Reuss, and EVP Grant Dixton all selling within days of each other near $90 — as the main story. That overhang has not materially changed. The 90-day net insider position remains deeply negative in value terms, and those transactions followed equity award grants. What has changed is that shorts have now joined the sellers in stepping back, removing one category of potential pressure. The stock is holding $89 despite both groups lightening up.
With the next earnings date set for October 20, the question that builds from here is whether the gap between the current price and the analyst consensus — still 10% or more even at the more conservative targets — closes through price appreciation, or whether it narrows from the top as targets get revisited on any macro or tariff deterioration between now and the Q3 print.
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