TeraWulf delivered its Q2 results on August 7 and the market's response was unambiguous: the stock fell more than 8% the next day, extending a 24% slide over the past month to $16.75, while short sellers moved swiftly to rebuild positions that had drifted lower heading into the print.
The most telling shift post-earnings is in short positioning. Bears now hold 26.3% of the free float — around 110 million shares — up 6.3% in a single session on August 11 and 5.8% on the week. That marks the highest short interest level since mid-July, reversing a modest easing that had given pre-earnings observers some hope of a covering squeeze. The day-to-cover ratio from the most recent FINRA filing stands at 3.34 days, meaning any sustained buying pressure would take meaningful time to absorb. What is notable, however, is that the borrow market tells a less alarming story for squeezed shorts: availability has actually loosened sharply this week, climbing to 130% from around 65% just a week ago. Cost to borrow is running at just 0.56% — near multi-month lows despite a 36% weekly uptick. Shorts are not being punished for holding. Availability at 130% means there is ample room in the lending pool for new entrants, and the cheap borrow confirms there is no supply-driven pressure forcing a cover. Options tell a different story: the put/call ratio jumped to 0.42 on Tuesday — more than three standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.35 — a level of defensive positioning not seen since mid-year, suggesting options traders are hedging rather than chasing the bounce.
The Street remains structurally bullish despite the post-earnings selloff, but the conviction is nuanced. The consensus mean target of $37.17 implies more than 120% upside from the current price — a gap so wide it reflects disagreement on timeline rather than direction. B. Riley raised its target to $40 the week before earnings and maintained its Buy. Rosenblatt and Chardan both held at Buy with $30 and $32 targets respectively after the print, signalling no change in long-term thesis. Morgan Stanley's Overweight carry with a $72 target, raised in early July, remains the most bullish on the Street. The bear case crystallised in the Q2 report: revenue came in below expectations, expenses ran higher, and the legacy bitcoin mining business is carrying the company until HPC facilities are fully operational. EPS momentum scores rank in the 94th and 98th percentile on 30- and 90-day measures — a reflection of positive estimate revisions — yet the forward earnings yield is deeply negative and the EV/EBITDA multiple has expanded to 30x, a demanding price for a business still proving the HPC transition thesis.
Institutional flow adds texture. The Bank of Nova Scotia added 12.4 million shares through June 30, making it the largest reported holder at roughly 8% of shares. Jane Street added nearly 17.9 million shares in the same period — a substantial move for a firm typically associated with market-making rather than directional conviction. Citadel added 10 million shares through late May. That cluster of fresh institutional buying sits in stark contrast to insider activity: CEO and founder Paul Prager sold 137,500 shares at $26.60 in late June, realising $3.7 million near the recent highs. Executive Director Kerri Langlais sold 276,500 shares at $17.66 on August 3, days before the earnings miss. Both sales preceded the stock's steepest declines. Net insider activity over the past 90 days is technically positive in share terms due to July equity awards, but the open-market cash sales from the two most senior figures tell a more cautious read on near-term value.
Across the mining peer group, the week's damage was broad but WULF absorbed more than most. CIFR fell 15.6% on the week, KEEL dropped 20%, and CLSK lost 18.7%. IREN was the relative outlier, down just 2.7%. WULF's 11.3% weekly decline lands in the middle of that pack — worse than RIOT at 6.1%, better than the hardest-hit names — but the company-specific earnings disappointment adds an idiosyncratic layer that peer weakness alone does not explain.
The ORTEX short score has eased slightly to 67.9 from a recent peak above 70 earlier this week, a move consistent with availability loosening, though the level remains elevated. What to watch next is the pace of HPC capacity coming online and whether the operational drag from legacy mining narrows in Q3 — the November 11 earnings date is the next hard checkpoint for whether the pivot story is accelerating or stalling.
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