Modivo enters the post-earnings period with one meaningful shift in the lending picture — but the broader short setup remains as charged as any point this year, even as the stock tries to stabilise after its August 7 drop.
The clearest development this week is a marginal loosening in borrow availability. After three consecutive sessions at 0% — with the entire lending pool fully lent out through August 4, 6, and 7 — availability edged back to 1.76% on August 11. That is not relief in any meaningful sense: fewer than two shares remain available for every hundred already borrowed, and the 52-week low is still 0%. Cost to borrow has dipped very slightly from last week's 14.4% to 13.5%, itself a modest pullback from the 24% spike recorded in early July. The month-on-month move is still a 22% increase in borrowing costs. The lending market has fractionally decompressed since the earnings print, but the fundamentals of the squeeze setup — near-zero availability, elevated cost to borrow, a deeply constrained pool — remain intact.
What has changed more meaningfully is the ORTEX short score. It accelerated through the week: 66.7 on July 29, then a sharp climb to 73.3 on August 4, 76.6 on August 6, 78.2 on August 7, and now 79.9 on August 11. That is the highest reading in the data window and represents a sustained, not episodic, ratchet upward. The short score ranks Modivo in the 3rd percentile globally — meaning 97% of stocks in the database score lower. The days-to-cover rank sits in the 8th percentile. Together, those readings describe a stock where short positioning is extreme relative to the available lending supply, and the gap between demand and supply has been widening, not closing, in the days since the earnings miss.
The stock itself has partially recovered. After the 7.4% drop on August 7 to PLN 91.5, Modivo bounced 1.8% on August 11 to PLN 93.5. That is still down 3.5% on the week and nearly 6% over the past month. The partial bounce following an earnings-driven selloff is consistent with the prior earnings event on June 25, which produced only a 0.3% day-one move but then extended to a 5% gain over five days. The June 11 event went further — an 11% day-one move followed by a 24.5% five-day gain. The pattern across those two prior prints was that the stock had more momentum after the dust settled than the initial reaction implied.
The ownership picture adds one genuinely notable data point from last month. Goldman Sachs reported a new position of 4.93 million shares — roughly 5.9% of the company — in a filing dated June 16. That makes it the third-largest reported holder, behind the controlling entity ULTRO (30.7%) and Nationale-Nederlanden pension fund (8.3%). Goldman's entry is recent enough to be relevant and large enough to be structural. At the same time, ULTRO reduced its position by 6.5 million shares in its most recent filing, the largest single change among all major holders. That combination — a large strategic seller and a new institutional buyer at similar scale — suggests the shareholder base is in transition.
The next scheduled catalyst is October 1, when Modivo reports again. Between now and then, the key variable is whether borrow availability begins to open up in a way that allows new short supply into the market, or whether the pool stays near-exhausted and the short score continues its climb. With availability still close to zero and borrowing costs running at nearly 14%, the structure of the lending market remains the primary constraint on how this stock trades.
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