Intuitive Machines reports today with a striking divergence at its core: short sellers are pulling back sharply even as options traders pile into defensive positioning, leaving the stock in genuinely contested territory ahead of the print.
The withdrawal of short interest is the most notable pre-earnings shift. Shorts have covered roughly 8.5% of their position over the past month, dropping to 29% of the float — still a heavy burden, but directionally significant. Yet borrow availability has tightened sharply over the same period, falling to just 26%, meaning only one share in borrow remains for every four already lent out. The stock itself has rallied 21% on the week to $16.95, a move that may be forcing covers rather than attracting fresh conviction. Meanwhile, options traders are the most defensive they have been in the past year: the put/call ratio has spiked to 0.67, three standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.40 and nearly matching its 52-week high of 0.67. That extreme in hedging demand sits in direct tension with the short-covering story.
The bull and bear camps could hardly be further apart on what LUNR actually is. Bulls point to the Lanteris acquisition, a 1,150% year-over-year jump in Q4 gross profit to $8.5 million, and a consensus of buy-side upgrades that lifted price targets aggressively through late May — Roth Capital raised its target to $75, Cantor Fitzgerald to $43, and B. Riley to $45, all maintaining bullish ratings. The analyst consensus mean sits near $39, implying significant upside from current levels. Bears counter that the company carries deep operating losses, reported EBITDA losses on revenues of just $44.8 million, and a quality factor rank in the bottom decile of its universe. The stock's EV/EBITDA multiple near 63x demands a growth story the company has yet to consistently deliver.
Insider activity adds a further cautionary note. The founder and Chairman, Kamal Ghaffarian, has sold shares on multiple occasions since mid-June at prices well above today's level — including transactions at $26 and $20 in June. Private equity backer Advent International exited its entire 11.5 million share position in late July at $12.84. Net insider selling over the past 90 days totals roughly $174 million. Institutional flows tell a partially different story: BlackRock added 2.2 million shares through July, and State Street added nearly 2 million, providing some offset to the insider exodus. Peer performance reinforces the sense of a market that wants to be bullish on space — VOYG, RDW, and ACHR each rose more than 27% on the week — but LUNR has lagged its correlated names even into this rally.
The print tests whether Intuitive Machines can show a credible path to sustained gross profit improvement — one that closes the gap between the growth narrative analysts are pricing in and the loss trajectory that insiders and bears have been betting against.
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