Ten days after Wayfair surged 30% on earnings, the options market is flashing its most bearish signal in nearly three weeks.
The put-call ratio hit 1.12 on August 13. That is a z-score of 3.75 against the 20-day mean of 0.70 — an extreme reading by any measure. The stock has given back ground since the print, falling 1.8% on the day and 2.8% over the past week. At $101, it now trades meaningfully below the consensus analyst target of $123.
The options pessimism sits in contrast to what analysts are doing. Two more upgrades arrived today. Bernstein's Nikhil Devnani upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform, lifting the target to $125 from $100. Citigroup's Ronald Josey kept his Buy and raised the target to $133 from $95.
That follows a wave of target increases on August 5, when UBS went to $156, Truist to $135, Guggenheim to $135, Wells Fargo to $130, and Evercore ISI to $130. The street is constructive. The options market, for the moment, is not.
Short interest has fallen sharply since the earnings print. SI now sits at 11.8% of free float, down 14.2% over the past week. That is roughly 12.65 million shares short versus over 14.7 million just prior to the August 4 report.
The covering makes sense. A 30% single-day move forces short sellers to reassess. The ORTEX short score has also eased — from 52.3 on August 5 down to 49.5 today, reflecting the reduced short-side pressure.
The lending market is loose. Availability stands at 1,904% — roughly 19 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. Cost to borrow has nudged up to 0.50%, a 15% rise over the past week, but remains low in absolute terms. There is no meaningful squeeze pressure in the borrow market.
The data tells two different stories. Analysts have raised targets in bulk and two firms upgraded today. EPS momentum ranks in the 73rd percentile, and the 12-month forward EPS growth factor scores at the top of the universe. The bull case rests on 8.8 million repeat customers and $1.5 billion in cash.
The options market sees it differently. A PCR of 1.12 at a 3.75 z-score means put buyers are paying up aggressively. The stock has slipped back from post-earnings highs. Bears point to same-store sales growth of just 4–6% for 2026, potential gross margin pressure below 30%, and $3.2 billion in debt.
Next earnings are October 29. That is the next data point that resolves this disagreement.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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