BLMN delivered a genuine earnings shock on August 5 — a 22% single-day surge driven by a Q2 beat across Carrabba's and Fleming's — but shorts have spent the past week methodically rebuilding positions into the rally, and options traders are now more defensive than they have been all year.
Short interest has climbed in a way that demands attention. BLMN's short interest now represents 10.4% of the free float, up roughly 8.5% week-on-week and nearly 20% higher than a month ago. The pace of that rebuilding is notable: bears appear to be fading the post-earnings strength rather than covering into it. Yet the borrow market tells a more relaxed story about squeeze risk. Availability has exploded to 2,211% — meaning there are more than twenty shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out, well above the 52-week floor of 530%. Cost to borrow hovers near just 0.53%, barely moved despite the surge in shares short. Shorts face no supply constraints and minimal carry costs: this is accumulation under comfortable conditions, not a crowded squeeze setup.
Options positioning has shifted meaningfully more cautious since the earnings print. The put/call ratio climbed to 0.71 Friday — roughly 1.4 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.51 — and a look at the history makes the pivot stark. Through most of July the PCR ran in the 0.37–0.38 range, reflecting outright bullishness. From early August it has risen in near-unbroken steps to touch a reading close to the 52-week high of 0.89. Options traders who bought calls into earnings have largely rotated toward protection.
The Street is cautiously constructive but not convicted. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $12 from $8 following the print, and Piper Sandler followed with an identical $12 target raise from $9 — both maintaining neutral ratings that cap upside acknowledgement. The mean analyst target is $11.32, roughly 7% above Friday's close of $10.55, a modest gap that reflects limited conviction rather than a clear bull thesis. The bear case is well-documented: a 10% traffic decline compounded over three years, EPS guidance cut by around 20%, and sequential comparable-sales trends that remain fragile at best outside the two outperforming brands. EV/EBITDA has drifted down roughly 3.4 points over the past month to 9.3x as the earnings pop faded — the market re-rating the multiple rather than extending it. Factor scores add a nuanced overlay: EPS momentum ranks in the 82nd percentile on a 30-day basis, reflecting the fresh beat, but the forward earnings growth score sits at just 22, suggesting the street doesn't believe the upward revision story has legs.
Among institutional holders, Dimensional Fund Advisors added over 1.28 million shares in the quarter ending June, the largest buyer among the top fifteen. AllianceBernstein built an almost entirely new position of over 3 million shares. Starboard Value — the activist that has been a known holder — trimmed modestly. Insider data is stale (last activity April 22, routine director awards at zero cost), so no signal there.
The earnings history underscores the binary nature of this stock. The August 5 result delivered a 22% next-day gain and a 28% five-day move. The prior event on August 6, 2026 produced the opposite: a 7.6% one-day drop and an 8.9% five-day loss. With no next earnings event yet dated, the immediate watch is whether the short interest rebuild continues at this pace — and whether the options market's growing defensiveness is validated by any deterioration in the August comparable-sales trajectory before the company next speaks publicly.
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