Deere Bears Retreat Ahead of Q3 Print

Deere & Company heads into its August 20 Q3 results with short sellers visibly stepping back — but options traders are quietly hedging the other side.

The retreat in short interest is the clearest setup signal. Bearish positioning has fallen roughly 9% over the past month to 2.2% of the free float, with the decline steady and consistent across the last four weeks. Borrow conditions confirm the story: availability is exceptionally loose at nearly 1,854%, meaning shares are easy to obtain for anyone wanting to build a new short — yet they aren't. Cost to borrow remains near 0.47%, barely above the general collateral rate. The lending market is not signalling any kind of squeeze pressure, and short sellers are not loading up ahead of the print.

Options positioning tells a more cautious story, however. The put/call ratio has drifted upward to 0.9986 — modestly above its 20-day average of 0.95 — and has climbed steadily since mid-July when it sat near 0.85. The move is not dramatic; at less than one standard deviation above the mean, it falls well short of the extremes seen in the past year (the 52-week high is 1.29). Still, the direction of travel — more puts relative to calls over six weeks into a known catalyst — suggests growing demand for downside protection rather than outright bearishness.

The fundamental debate heading into the print centres on whether Deere's margin recovery can keep pace with a revenue mix that is shifting back toward weaker segments. Bulls point to the SAT segment's 24% year-on-year sales jump to $2.17 billion and a Construction & Forestry earthmoving order book up 50% from the prior quarter as evidence of broadening demand beyond the distressed large-ag market. Bears highlight that Equipment Operations overall reported a 5.9% operating margin — down 180 basis points — with negative operating cash flow of $1.34 billion, a figure they argue reflects structural pressure from tariff costs that pricing has not fully offset. Analyst sentiment skews mildly bearish in the immediate run-up: JP Morgan trimmed its target to $570 on August 14, and Evercore ISI cut to $632 on August 11. Both firms kept neutral-equivalent ratings. The mean consensus target of $647 still implies modest upside from the current $608.85, though the stock's strong year-to-date run of roughly 35% has already absorbed much of the Street's prior optimism.

The most recent comparable print — May 21 — saw the stock fall 5.6% on the day and 3.8% over the following five sessions, suggesting the market has a recent habit of selling the number regardless of the headline. The August 20 release is therefore less a test of whether demand is recovering and more a test of whether Deere can demonstrate that margins are stabilising at levels that justify a stock already trading near the top of its peer group.