Options positioning on SPCX just hit a record high put-call ratio. The covering wave has paused. Those two facts, arriving together, define the current moment for Space Exploration Technologies.
The put-call ratio closed Monday at 1.12 — the highest reading since the stock listed in early July. It sits 2.45 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.94. Options traders are buying more downside protection now than at any point in SPCX's short history. That is a notable shift: through most of the squeeze unwind, the PCR stayed in a tight band between 0.88 and 1.03. Monday's reading broke cleanly above that range.
The timing matters. The covering wave that ran from August 6 through August 14 reduced short interest from 232.7 million shares to 126.4 million — a 46% decline in eight sessions. But the pace stalled. The August 14 reading is unchanged from where it stood last Friday. Bears appear to be holding the remaining position rather than chasing higher prices. Options traders are apparently agreeing with that posture.
The borrow market tells the same stabilisation story. Availability has risen to 56.7% — from near-zero readings on August 5 and 6, when effectively every share in the lending pool was already out. Cost to borrow has collapsed to 0.69%, down 79% week-on-week. Both moves confirm the acute squeeze mechanics have fully unwound.
What this means: new short sellers can now enter at near-normal borrowing costs. The lending market is no longer a deterrent. Whether that invites fresh positioning — or simply allows the remaining 126 million shares to stay comfortable where they are — is the open question.
The analyst community is divided on valuation but unified on the bull rating. Argus Research upgraded to Buy on August 7, at the height of the covering wave. UBS maintained its Buy with a $210 target as recently as yesterday. Macquarie sits at $250 Outperform; Cantor Fitzgerald at $246 Overweight. The consensus mean target is $227 — a 55% premium to Friday's close of $146.23.
Not everyone is that constructive. Piper Sandler lowered its target to $140 on August 5, now below the current price. Wells Fargo trimmed to $215 from $230. The bull case rests on AI cloud wins, the V13 Starship programme, and potential Tesla merger speculation. The bear case centres on slowing growth in AI and Connectivity segments and execution risk around monetising those capabilities.
Three data points converging: the short base has stalled at 126 million shares, put buying just hit a record, and availability is open enough for fresh positions to be built cheaply. The next ORTEX daily estimate will show whether bears are re-adding or the cover wave resumes.
Data summary
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