Wells Fargo lifts MET target to $109 as shorts retreat

MET heads into the back half of August with analysts chasing the stock higher and options traders growing notably more defensive — a tension worth unpacking.

The analyst upgrade cycle on MetLife has been relentless. Wells Fargo raised its target to $109 on Tuesday, maintaining an Overweight rating, just days after JP Morgan held its own Overweight and bumped to $108. Those moves follow a broader wave of target increases that began in early July, with TD Cowen, Jefferies, Keefe Bruyette and Barclays all lifting numbers over the past six weeks. The direction of travel is unambiguous: the consensus mean target now sits at $103.88, roughly 7.4% above the current price of $96.73. Every recent change has been a raise, and no firm has downgraded. The one dissenting note comes from Evercore ISI, which carries an In-Line rating — the sole non-bullish voice in a crowded bull camp.

Options positioning tells a more cautious story, and the contrast with analyst sentiment is the most interesting tension on the stock right now. The put/call ratio has climbed to 1.39, more than two and a half standard deviations above its 20-day average of 1.24 — the most defensively skewed reading in recent months. That level remains well below the 52-week high of 1.81, so this is not an extreme in absolute terms. But the rapid drift higher over the past two weeks, from around 1.18 in late July to 1.39 today, suggests options traders are adding downside protection even as the sell-side raises targets. The stock itself is up 2.9% on the month but slipped 0.07% on the week, closing at $96.73 on Tuesday — a modest consolidation after a strong run.

Short interest is not the story here. Bears have been reducing exposure at pace: SI has fallen roughly 21% over the past month to just 1.66% of free float, and the borrow market is as relaxed as it gets. Availability is effectively unconstrained, with over 633 million shares available to lend and cost to borrow at a negligible 0.37% — down 34% over the past month. The ORTEX short score of 32.2 reflects this low-conviction short-side positioning. What makes the SI decline notable is its timing: the drop accelerated sharply around August 10-11, when short interest fell from roughly 12.5 million shares to just under 11 million in a single session. That coincided with the Q2 earnings release, after which the stock gained nearly 4% in a day. Shorts that pressed into the print got squeezed out quickly.

Institutional ownership adds some texture. T. Rowe Price added 2.55 million shares in the most recent filing period, making it the most active accumulator among large holders. Arrowstreet Capital built a position of nearly 2.7 million shares. On the other side, the MetLife Policyholder Trust — the largest single holder at 16.1% of shares — trimmed by 3.3 million shares, and Vanguard's portfolio management arm reduced by 782,000. The net picture is broadly supportive, with active managers adding while index-adjacent flows remain flat to slightly negative. Forward EPS momentum is a standout factor, ranking in the 95th percentile on 12-month forward estimates — consistent with the stock score note from earlier in the summer that flagged growth as the dominant pillar of the investment case.

The next earnings event is scheduled for November 4. Between now and then, the key variable to watch is whether the options-market caution reflects a genuine view on macro headwinds — particularly interest rate sensitivity on the bond portfolio — or simply routine hedging after a 22% year-to-date run that has outpaced most insurance peers. PRU gained 1.8% on the week while LNC added 1.5%; MET's flat week suggests some relative fatigue in the near term, even as the analyst community keeps lifting its sights.