BP Looks Unloved While the Borrow Market Says Otherwise

BP enters the back half of August in an unusual position: the stock is near multi-month lows relative to peers, yet the lending market shows almost no conviction from short sellers whatsoever.

The peer divergence this week is striking. SHEL gained nearly 1% on the week. EQNR and AKRBP each added roughly 1%. REP led the European majors with a 4% weekly gain. BP, by contrast, slipped 0.4% to close at 530p, even as it bounced 2.7% on Tuesday alone. That combination — underperformance against a rising sector, with a single-day spike that failed to hold into the weekly close — points to a stock where buyers are tentative and sellers remain present.

The short-selling picture, however, tells a decisively different story. There is essentially no meaningful short interest in BP right now. Availability runs at maximum — the lending pool is nearly untouched — and the ORTEX short score has drifted steadily lower over the past two weeks, falling from 26.6 on August 5 to 25.3 by August 18. A lower short score indicates less short pressure, not more. The cost to borrow a modest 0.56% annually, barely above its recent range, confirms there is no rush to establish bearish positions through the borrow market. Factor rankings reinforce this: BP's utilization rank sits in the 92nd percentile and its short score rank in the 94th — both reflecting how un-shorted this stock is relative to the broader universe. The underperformance this week is not being driven by a short seller pile-in.

Where the Street's caution shows up is in valuation and sector positioning rather than in short books. BP trades at a PE of 8.7x and an EV/EBITDA of 3.9x — both cheap in absolute terms, and both slightly softer over the past month as earnings expectations have drifted. The most recent quarterly result, reported August 4, knocked the stock 6.7% in a single session, with a further 3% erosion over the following five days. That reaction — the worst single-day earnings move in the available history — left a mark. The April print, by contrast, saw a modest 0.9% gain on the day. The two-print pattern suggests the market is asymmetrically punishing bad news while barely rewarding good news, a dynamic that fits a stock where investors are reassessing the strategic narrative rather than simply tracking oil prices. The dividend score ranks in the 89th percentile, so income investors are still engaged, but growth and momentum factor scores sit at 50 and below, reflecting the stalled price action relative to peers.

On ownership, GQG Partners stands out. The active manager added roughly 290 million shares in the most recent reported period, bringing its holding to 323 million shares — one of the largest directional moves among any top-15 holder. BlackRock added 36 million shares and Amundi added 30 million, both in the past month. These are incremental additions, not position rebuilds, but they do point to passive and active buying at current levels rather than distribution. The BP ESOP, meanwhile, reduced its holding by 181 million shares — a sizeable internal exit, though mechanically likely tied to award vesting and plan management rather than a sentiment signal from management directly.

The next earnings event is scheduled for October 30. Given the August 4 reaction — the sharpest post-result drop in recent quarters — the market's appetite for bad news on costs, production volumes, or dividend guidance will be the key variable to watch into that date.