Wolfspeed reported on August 19 and fell 7.5% on the day — but the more revealing story is what the positioning data shows now that the print has landed.
Short interest remains at 101.5% of the free float, effectively unchanged after the earnings drop. That figure — 26.3 million shares short against a free float that has been entirely consumed by bearish positioning — has barely moved. The week-on-week increase of roughly 9% confirms shorts were still adding into the catalyst, not covering ahead of it. More telling still: availability remains at zero. Every share in the lending pool is lent out, a state that has persisted without interruption for the entire observable history in this dataset. The cost to borrow has eased to 3.5%, down more than 54% from its early-July peak above 9%, which points to a stable and entrenched short base rather than a scramble to add new positions. The ORTEX short score of 74.5 ranks in the 1st percentile of the universe — the most extreme short-side reading in the semiconductor space.
The bull and bear divide on Wolfspeed has been stark, and the earnings print has not resolved it. Bears point to structural profitability problems: a near-zero return on capital employed, an F-score of 3, and a valuation that has been driven more by momentum than by earnings power. The most recent analyst action, Susquehanna's cut from $40 to $30 in late July, reflects that sentiment — a target still close to the current price of $29.09, but a downward revision that signals diminishing confidence in the recovery thesis. Bulls have leaned on the silicon carbide structural story and the 80%+ year-to-date rally, arguing that the worst of the balance sheet stress is priced in. That argument faces a tougher test after a second consecutive negative day.
Institutional flows add a layer of complexity. Jane Street and Goldman Sachs have both built meaningful new positions — Goldman added 2.2 million shares, Jane Street added 2.5 million — while Renesas Electronics holds a dominant 32.4% strategic stake that is unchanged. The pattern suggests some large players have been buying into the same stock that short sellers have surrounded completely, a structural standoff between strategic holders and a fully-loaded short base.
The print itself therefore shifts the question from "how will Wolfspeed trade into earnings" to whether the post-earnings decline prompts any covering from a short base that has nowhere left to go in the lending market — or whether it emboldens the bears to hold an already-extreme position through whatever comes next on the balance sheet and guidance front.
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