SJM heads into its August 25 earnings release with the Street turning notably more constructive — and a wave of target-price upgrades in the final days before the print.
Analyst momentum has been one-directional this week. UBS raised its target to $142 on August 20, keeping a Buy. Jefferies followed on August 19 with a lift to $140, also Buy. JP Morgan moved to $139 from $125 on August 14, maintaining Overweight. Even TD Cowen, which holds a Hold, nudged its target to $123. The consensus mean now sits at $127.69 — roughly 2.7% above the current price of $124.32 — but the bullish cluster at $139–$142 implies the conviction names see considerably more room. Bulls are focused on Uncrustables' growth runway and the improving Hostess integration; bears point to private-label pressure in core categories and the macro squeeze on consumer staples volumes.
Options positioning remains the caution flag in this otherwise constructive setup. The put/call ratio is running at 0.754, about 1.7 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.632. That is a shift from the prior article published three days ago — the z-score has eased slightly from the 2.7 standard-deviation extreme reported then, but the PCR itself has ticked a touch higher, now at 0.754 versus 0.745 previously. The elevated ratio has held for the better part of a week, suggesting options traders are still paying for downside protection even as sell-side targets move up. The stock has responded well to the improving sentiment, gaining about 7.4% over the past month and 2.4% on the week to close at $124.32.
Short interest is not the story here, but it supports a low-tension backdrop. SI eased to 5.2% of the free float and has drifted only marginally over the past month. Borrow availability is exceptionally loose — with availability at effectively the maximum reading, the lending pool is almost entirely undrawn. A June print that produced a 15% single-day move and a 14% five-day gain is on the historical record, which frames the stakes for Tuesday: the question is whether the current quarter's numbers, particularly on Uncrustables volume and Hostess margin progress, can justify the recent re-rating or whether the defensive options positioning captures something the bullish analyst chorus has missed.
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