CD Projekt Red has cleared its September 2 results and the stock is lower on the month, with the short score still elevated but showing the first signs of cooling — a post-earnings normalisation that leaves the setup more ambiguous than it was a week ago.
The short score tells the most interesting story right now. It peaked at 72.5 around August 28, held firmly above 71 through the earnings date, and has eased only marginally to 71.3 in the days since. That is a meaningful distinction: the score did not collapse after results, which would have signalled that the bearish momentum was purely an earnings-anxiety trade. Instead it is drifting, which suggests the underlying pressure — deteriorating price momentum — has not reversed. CDR closed at PLN 232.70, down 8.3% from a month ago, and down a half-percent on the week. The one-day reaction to the September 2 release was a modest -0.7%, broadly consistent with the May print which also produced a small negative move (-0.2% on the day, -2.2% over the following five days).
The lending market continues to tell a different story from the score. Borrow availability has actually loosened further since the pre-earnings note — it now runs at roughly 530% of short interest, up from around 440% a week ago, meaning there are more than five shares available to borrow for every one currently shorted. That is well into the "loose" range and has been trending in that direction all month. Cost to borrow is negligible at 0.80%, nudging slightly higher over the past week but nowhere near a level that would deter new short positions or threaten existing ones. The borrow market is not flagging any crowding or squeeze pressure. Positioning looks cautious rather than crowded — the short score reflects price momentum, not an aggressive lending-market bet.
The Street picture adds some context. The mean analyst price target is PLN 236.92, fractionally above the current price of PLN 232.70 — a spread too thin to signal meaningful upside conviction. No recent analyst changes are on record, leaving the forward earnings picture as the key bull case: the 12-month forward EPS growth factor scores in the 96th percentile, reflecting a sharp recovery in earnings expectations. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed about 2.7 points over the past 30 days to 13.7x, and the PE has come in roughly 3 points to 24.4x — both moving in the direction of cheaper, though the moves reflect the stock drifting down rather than estimates being revised up. The short score rank of just 4 (out of 100) flags the stock as one of the more bearish-scoring names in the broader universe, even with SI levels that are far from extreme in the lending market.
Among closely correlated Warsaw-listed peers, the week was broadly weak. CIG fell 2.8% and 11B slipped 2.2%, suggesting CDR's half-percent decline was actually one of the more resilient performances in its local peer group. Globally, TTWO was the notable laggard, down 8.1% on the week, while Capcom (9684) managed a 1% gain — a reminder that gaming names are not moving in lockstep right now.
The next scheduled earnings event is November 24, giving the stock roughly twelve weeks to find a narrative. The key question between now and then is whether the short score, which has been stubbornly elevated since the August 18 step-change, begins a sustained retreat as price momentum stabilises — or holds above 71, signalling that the market is waiting for the next catalyst before reassessing.
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