NCH2 closed Thursday at €7.96, up just over 1% on the week — a modest stabilisation that masks a borrow market still running at extreme stress, even as the most acute pressure begins, very slightly, to abate.
The clearest shift since the previous two notes is in availability, which has moved from 7% to just under 10%. That sounds like relief. It isn't. One share available for every ten already borrowed remains deeply constrained territory — only fractionally above the 52-week low of 0.01% touched earlier this year. Cost to borrow has also pulled back from its most violent readings: at 95% it has halved from the mid-August peak above 200%, and is down 37% on the week. Yet "half of 200%" is still an extraordinarily expensive borrow. Two months of continuous stress have produced a modest softening, not a reset. The ORTEX short score captures this exactly: at 96.7, it has drifted down by less than a point from the 97.3 high logged in late August. Factor scores reinforce the picture — the short score percentile ranks at zero (meaning essentially the most heavily shorted name in the universe on a relative basis), days-to-cover ranks in the bottom 1%, and utilisation at 91% is in the second percentile. This is not a borrow market in recovery. It is oscillating around extreme levels with no structural return of supply visible.
The Street's message is marginally more constructive than the lending data implies. The analyst consensus mean price target is €10.41, against a current price of €7.96 — roughly 31% above current levels. No analyst moves have been flagged in the most recent data cycle, so the target represents accumulated conviction rather than fresh directional action. On the valuation side, the picture is harder to read positively: the EV/EBITDA multiple is deeply negative at -49.7, reflecting persistent operating losses, and the earnings yield is barely negative at -0.011. Price-to-book is 1.37 — not cheap for a loss-making industrial — and has drifted higher over the past 30 days. The 90-day EPS momentum factor scores at just 6 out of 100, meaning forward estimate revisions have been broadly negative for the quarter. The 30-day EPS momentum score, by contrast, ranks at 100 — suggesting very recent estimate moves have turned sharply higher, possibly off a low base after the August results.
That August results print is worth framing. The stock fell 1.2% on the day of the most recent earnings release and extended the loss to 2.6% over the following five sessions — a muted reaction compared to the May 2026 print, which drove a 7.3% gain on the day and a 5.7% move over five days. The contrast matters: when nucera delivers a positive operational surprise, the borrow market's extreme tightness creates the conditions for an abrupt short squeeze. When it disappoints, shorts are rewarded but the cost of carry has been punishing them for months in the meantime. The next scheduled earnings event is December 16.
Ownership concentration means the free float is small and structurally contested. Thyssenkrupp Projekt 1 GmbH holds 50% of shares; Federico De Nora holds a further 26%; the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia accounts for 6%. Together those three strategic holders control over 82% of the register, leaving a tiny tradeable float against which current short positioning is already near fully utilised. That structural feature explains why availability can stay this tight for so long — there simply is not much stock to lend back into the market, and the anchoring of the strategic holders removes any prospect of a large block becoming available.
What to watch: the December 16 earnings date is now the defining event on the calendar, but the more immediate question is whether availability continues its tentative recovery toward the 15-20% range — or whether the past week's move proves another false dawn in a borrow market that has been in continuous stress since July.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open NCH2 on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
