Braze Bulls Hold Firm as Bears Fade Before the Print

BRZE heads into its September 8 earnings report with a split personality: short sellers who piled in aggressively last week have since begun to retreat, options traders remain emphatically bullish, and analysts have spent the past week rushing to lift targets.

The short interest picture has shifted since the previous note published on September 2. At that point, SI had spiked to the highest level in the 30-day window. It has since pulled back — down roughly 2.3% over the past week to 12.4% of the free float, unwinding part of that aggressive re-short. The borrow market continues to offer bears no friction: availability runs at 365%, meaning more than three shares remain available to lend for every one already borrowed, and cost to borrow has eased further to just 0.46%, its lowest reading in the 30-day window. Bears are present but retreating, and the lending market gives them every incentive to return if they choose.

Options positioning remains the most emphatic signal. The put/call ratio has compressed to 0.16, more than 1.3 standard deviations below its 20-day average and close to the 52-week low of 0.14. That is an unusually call-heavy skew — options traders are not hedging into this print, they are leaning into it. The stock dropped 3.9% on Friday and 7.4% over the past week despite the month-long 21% rally, which means the options positioning is holding even as price has given back some ground.

The analyst community reinforced the bullish case in the days immediately following the prior earnings event. Barclays raised its target to $38 from $31, and DA Davidson lifted to $40 from $33, both actions filed on September 2. Those follow earlier target increases from TD Cowen and Oppenheimer after the August 27 print. The consensus sits at Buy with a mean target of $36.25, comfortably above the current price of $31.96. Bulls point to accelerating organic growth across three consecutive quarters, improving gross retention, and early AI decisioning product traction. Bears counter with a lack of profitability, margin pressure, and rising competition from AI-native platforms — risks the market has repeatedly forgiven when growth data has held up.

FMR (Fidelity) stands out in the ownership register, having raised its stake to 15% — the largest disclosed holder by a wide margin, and up from 12.4% in a prior filing. BlackRock also added, reaching 7.1%. The CEO William Magnuson has been trimming gradually, with the insider register showing net selling of roughly $8.3 million over the past 90 days, all under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans — which reduces the read-through but does not eliminate it entirely. History adds texture: the last two earnings events both produced sharp positive reactions, with the stock gaining 12% the day after the August 27 release and 9.3% after the June 30 event. Before those, results were more mixed.

Tomorrow's print is therefore a test of whether the acceleration in organic growth and AI product traction can justify a stock still trading well below its 52-week peaks — and whether the options market's call-heavy bet is confirmed or sharply repriced.