PG&E Corporation has lost 14% in a week and 18% in a month. Analysts keep lowering targets. But the latest moves from Barclays and B of A suggest the repricing may be entering a final phase.
Since our last reports covered the initial shock — four downgrades in 48 hours through September 1-2 — the cuts have continued into this week.
Truist's Richard Sunderland downgraded to Hold from Buy on September 3, cutting his target from $21 to $17. Mizuho's Anthony Crowdell trimmed again, from $16 to $14. Both Barclays and JP Morgan held their Overweight ratings but slashed targets — Barclays from $23 to $18, JP Morgan from $25 to $18.
Then on September 4, B of A's Ross Fowler — who had cut PCG to Neutral just three days earlier — raised his target from $13 to $14. Small move, but a signal. After a $24-to-$13 slash, a first upward revision suggests at least one firm thinks the floor is near.
The mean consensus target now sits at $19.66 against a September 4 close of $14.30. That implies roughly 37% upside — but the figure remains inflated by analysts who haven't yet updated models post-selloff. The gap will compress further as laggards reprice.
Short interest has risen 15.4% over the past week to 1.90% of free float. That is continued accumulation through the decline. Bears added exposure and held.
At 1.90% of free float, the absolute level remains low. The borrow market tells the same story. Availability stands at 4,550% of short interest — there are vastly more shares available to borrow than there are shares currently shorted. Short sellers face no squeeze mechanics here. The borrow cost of 0.36% is also low, having actually fallen 29% over the past week from its recent peak.
The direction of short interest is the only bear signal from the lending market. The structure of it offers no reinforcement.
EIX is down 19% on the week — nearly identical to PCG's 14% decline. No other peer is close. XEL, ES, POR, and DUK are all within 2% on the week in either direction. The California-specific wildfire liability overhang is clearly what's driving both names, not broad utility sector weakness.
Earnings are due October 22. That gives the market roughly six weeks to decide whether the analyst target gap closes from the top down or the bottom up.
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