ODD Calls Surge as Bears Brace for Today's Print

Oddity Tech heads into today's Q3 earnings with one of the most extreme options setups in the market right now — and the signals point in opposite directions.

The clearest anomaly is in options. Call demand has overwhelmed puts to a degree that rarely happens. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.42, nearly three standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.78 — the most bullish positioning in the past year. This is a sharp and sudden reversal: for most of August, the PCR sat consistently above 0.80, suggesting the two-day swing into this week's print represents a deliberate repositioning rather than drift. Someone is making a directional bet on an upside surprise.

Short interest tells a more cautious story for the bulls. At 14.1% of free float, short positioning remains elevated — up 7% versus a month ago — though it eased slightly on the week. Borrow cost has been falling and now sits at 1.82%, down from 3.5% in early August. Availability is in the tight-to-normal range at 59%, having loosened meaningfully from lows near 24% in late July. The ORTEX short score has crept up to 75.7, ranking in the bottom 5th percentile of the universe, which flags this as a name where short pressure is real and persistent even as borrow conditions ease. The stock itself is down 8% on the week and 8% on the month, trading at $13.03 — a fragile price that amplifies the stakes for today's number.

The analytical community is not constructive. After a June print that sent the stock down nearly 27% in a single session, the Street cut targets hard. Goldman downgraded to Sell with a $8 target. Morgan Stanley and Barclays both sit at Underweight or Equal-Weight with targets in the $8–10 range. In the only meaningful post-crash move, Truist raised its target from $12 to $16 last week while keeping a Hold — a tepid endorsement. The mean analyst target of $11.64 is actually below the current price, so the Street's base case implies further downside from here. The bear case centres on a 30%+ expected revenue decline driven by problems with the company's largest advertising partner and an absence of FY26 guidance; the bull case rests on direct-to-consumer growth running at 24% year-on-year and gross margins above 70%.

The institutional register adds an interesting wrinkle. Baillie Gifford has grown its stake to 22.4% of the company, up from 17.3%, making it the largest external institutional holder. BlackRock filed a fresh 13G in late July disclosing 9.9%. These are not momentum traders — their continued buying through the post-crash period suggests conviction at lower prices, even as all 13D/G disclosures carry the standard caveat that stakes are as-last-disclosed and holders can exit without further filing below the 5% threshold. Against that backdrop, the extreme call positioning and the institutional buying stand against a still-heavy short base and a Street consensus sitting in sell territory. Today's print will test whether the recovery narrative around ad-channel diversification and margin improvement holds — or whether the June collapse was the opening act.