Why this matters: Three separate signals on CME Group are moving in the same direction this week. Options traders are buying more puts. Short sellers are rebuilding positions. And a Deutsche Bank downgrade from late August still hangs over the stock. The convergence is worth watching with October earnings six weeks out.
The standout signal is in options. CME's put/call ratio reached 1.20 on September 10. That is the highest reading in weeks. Against a 20-day mean of 1.01 and a standard deviation of 0.064, the z-score lands at 2.89. That is a statistically unusual lean toward protection. Options traders are not neutral. They are buying puts at a pace well outside the recent norm.
The previous ORTEX note from September 2 captured a different story. Short interest was at 1.43% of free float and falling fast. Bears were leaving voluntarily. That has reversed sharply. SI has climbed 21% over the past week to 1.73% of free float as of September 9. The one-day jump alone was 14%. That is a meaningful rebuild — the sharpest weekly increase since late August — though the absolute level remains low.
The borrow market is not strained. Availability sits at 4,025% — roughly 40 shares still available for every one already borrowed. Cost to borrow fell 53% over the week to 0.42%. Bears can build positions cheaply and easily.
Deutsche Bank downgraded CME to Hold from Buy on August 19, cutting the target from $286 to $270. The stock is currently at $274.07. That puts it trading above the Deutsche Bank target with a Hold rating. TD Cowen reiterated Buy with a $292 target on September 3, but the consensus sits at hold overall: three buys, five holds. JP Morgan and B of A Securities both carry negative ratings. Morgan Stanley is the bull outlier with a $330 target.
The ORTEX short score has ticked up from 29.4 to 31.3 over the past ten days. It is not extreme, but the direction is clear.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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