Two major brokers cut AMGN within 48 hours. The stock is down 14% in a week. Short sellers are adding positions. The signals are aligning — and not in the bulls' favour.
BMO Capital struck first on September 8, downgrading Amgen from Outperform to Market Perform while holding its $450 target. HSBC followed on September 10, cutting from Buy to Hold and trimming its target from $445 to $425.
That puts the consensus at hold, with 8 buys against 18 holds. The mean price target sits at $388 — almost exactly where the stock is trading now at $382.47. There is virtually no analyst-implied upside priced in at current levels.
Both firms acted after a strong run. The stock had gained 12% in a month on biotech strength. The downgrades suggest at least two sell-side desks think that move went far enough.
Short interest climbed 9.2% in a single session on September 10. Over the past week it rose 11.1%. It now stands at 2.50% of free float — low in absolute terms, but the direction matters. That is a meaningful acceleration.
Over the past month, SI is up 5.2%. The trend has turned. Shorts who covered earlier in the summer are rebuilding positions.
One thing that limits the short-squeeze risk here: availability is enormous. The lending pool carries roughly 4,539% availability relative to short interest — meaning there are far more shares available to borrow than are currently borrowed. Shorts face no supply constraint.
Cost to borrow ticked up to 0.59% mid-week before easing back to 0.34% on September 10. That is not a stressed borrow market. Shorts can add size cheaply.
The put/call ratio sits at 1.25, above its 20-day mean of 1.17. It is not extreme — the z-score is 0.73 — but the direction has shifted. In early August the PCR was below 0.87. It has climbed steadily since, tracking the analyst sentiment turn.
The bear case centres on pipeline risk, slower product sales growth, and the risk that FY 2026 guidance disappoint. Morgan Stanley's equal-weight target of $362 — the lowest on the street — sits 5.4% below current levels. Mizuho's neutral target of $352 is lower still.
The bull case points to Tezspire's label expansion, the biosimilar portfolio, and the oncology drugs acquired via Onyx. Argus Research holds a $460 buy target. Next earnings are due November 5.
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