Macro Shock Dominates as Inflation Holds, Oil Bites

CPI Lands In Line — Markets Breathe

August CPI came in at 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, matching expectations. Futures on the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all ticked higher on the print. The in-line read keeps the door open for a Fed cut later this year. However, US diesel has hit a record $6 a gallon on Iran supply disruptions. That stokes fresh price pressures just as the inflation fight appeared to be easing.

Bond Market Under Pressure

Treasury Secretary Bessent's $6bn bond buyback failed to calm markets. The FT reports investors view the operation as too small to stem the recent rise in borrowing costs. German borrowing costs edged above Eurozone debt-crisis levels. France's debt interest bill is set to jump 25% this year, with GDP growth also downgraded. Bond volatility remains the key macro risk.

Oil and the Iran Factor

The IEA warned of a "lost period" in global oil demand. The Strait of Hormuz will not reopen this year. Refined product prices are soaring. That backdrop adds bite to the short squeeze already building in LCID, where short interest hit 49.7% of free float and borrowing availability is near zero.

Earnings and Stock Moves

ORCL, ADBE, and RH are in focus today. Scotiabank gave TRGP a bold target hike to $314 this week. Wedbush initiated coverage across cybersecurity — flagging ZS and SentinelOne at Outperform. In Europe, defense stocks rallied after Ukraine ratified a $105bn EU loan deal. The Dulux maker soared after rejecting a $14.5bn takeover bid.