FPS Bulls Build as Short Sellers Pile In Before Tuesday Print

Forgent Power Solutions heads into its September 15 earnings report with options traders firmly in the bull camp — even as short sellers accelerate their bets against the stock.

The call-side dominance in options is striking. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.34, well below its 20-day average of 0.39 and near the lower end of the past year's range (52-week low: 0.00). That's a positioning tilt toward calls, not hedges — consistent with investors expecting a positive catalyst from the print. The stock has reinforced that framing with a 9% single-session jump on September 11, though the broader monthly picture is rougher: FPS is down 16% over the past month to $31.82. The borrow market is not a constraint here. Availability runs at a very loose 1,741%, with cost to borrow at just 0.47% — no meaningful friction for would-be shorts.

What's harder to dismiss is the sharp acceleration in short interest. Shares short rose nearly 19% in a single session on September 10, and are up 25% over the week, now approaching 9.9 million shares. That move is directional and deliberate. The ORTEX short score has jumped from around 36.9 at end-August to 40.9 — still moderate in absolute terms, but the rate of change is notable heading into a binary event. Short sellers are adding exposure even as call buyers position for upside; the two camps are pulling in opposite directions.

The analyst consensus leans firmly with the bulls. Eight analysts carry buy-equivalent ratings, with a mean price target around $59.90 — roughly 88% above Thursday's close. The most recent coverage initiation came from Baird in mid-July at Outperform with a $55 target. TD Cowen raised its target to $73 in late June. Morgan Stanley, sitting at Equal-Weight with a $51 target, remains the notable holdout in an otherwise bullish consensus. Valuation has compressed alongside the recent price weakness: the P/E multiple has fallen roughly 6 points over the past 30 days to around 18.5x, giving bulls a more comfortable entry point than a month ago.

The ownership structure adds one layer of interest. Neos Partners holds roughly 34% of shares per the institutional table, though their 13G/A filing from August 13 showed their disclosed stake falling from 67.5% to 51.5% of class — a significant reduction. Coatue Management initiated a new 7.5% position disclosed in mid-August, making it the second-largest outside holder. Both moves are "as last disclosed" and stakes can shift below 5% without further notification. On the insider side, the September 1 grants to the CEO (88,029 shares), CFO, CLO, and Chief Accounting Officer are all SEC transaction-code "A" awards — compensation mechanics, not open-market conviction buys.

Tuesday's print is ultimately a test of whether FPS can post results that justify the analyst consensus at nearly twice the current price — and give the options bulls a reason to hold their call exposure against a short base that just grew at its fastest weekly pace in months.