Bonds Lead, US Bleeds in Weekly Flows

Fixed income is the dominant story this week. Bond ETFs pulled in $22.2B net over the past seven days. That dwarfs every other asset class by a wide margin. The flow imbalance score hit 74.8 — firmly in buying pressure territory. Over three months, bonds attracted $230.5B. The direction of travel is consistent and accelerating.

Equities still drew net inflows of $7.2B on the week. But that masks a significant divergence. US-focused ETFs bled $5.0B in net outflows over seven days. The flow imbalance for the US sits at just 47.8 — almost perfectly balanced, leaning slightly to the sell side. That reverses the three-month picture, where the US absorbed $264B in net inflows — by far the largest geographic haul globally.

Geography Flows

Money is rotating away from the US and toward international markets this week. Global ETFs brought in $3.0B net. Japan added $1.9B. Developed Markets ex-North America pulled $1.0B. Emerging Markets attracted $1.3B, with a flow imbalance of 91.8 — near-maximum buying pressure.

Brazil stands out with $390M in weekly net inflows. Over three months, Brazil was a net outflow story, losing $1.1B. That flip is a notable trend reversal to watch. Singapore is another quiet standout — flow imbalance at 98.9, essentially one-directional buying.

China had net outflows of $180M this week. Over three months, China attracted $33.4B in net inflows. The short-term pause in a larger buying trend is worth monitoring.

Sector Rotation

Technology topped the weekly sector leaderboard with $710M in net inflows. But with a flow imbalance of only 52.7, the buying edge is thin. Over three months, Tech collected $39.0B — the largest sector haul by a huge distance.

The losers this week are Consumer Discretionary and Industrials. Consumer Discretionary shed $482M net, with a flow imbalance of 25.2 — strong selling pressure. Industrials lost $398M. Over three months, Industrials actually attracted $2.0B in net inflows. This week's reversal suggests near-term profit-taking.

Health Care lost $245M net this week. Over the prior three months it attracted $6.1B. Another short-term reversal in a longer-term buying trend. Financials held up, adding $463M this week and $4.2B over three months.

Energy is flat on the week at $9M net. Over three months it bled $4.1B — the only major sector with sustained net outflows over that window.

Asset Class and Strategy

Commodities drew $1.0B on the week with a flow imbalance of 60.3. Alternatives added $601M. Both categories continue attracting steady demand.

Active ETFs are gaining ground at the strategy level. They pulled in $1.2B this week against a 3m total of $181.6B. The flow imbalance over three months sits at 76 — the strongest sustained buying pressure of any major strategy. Dividends and Growth strategies both posted solid weekly inflows above $1B. ESG added $1.4B this week, maintaining strong 3m momentum of $19.5B.

Vanilla passive ETFs flipped to net outflows of $1.9B this week. Over three months they collected $302B. The weekly dip suggests short-term redemption pressure on broad index products.

Overall, the tone is cautious but not bearish. Investors are adding bonds, rotating internationally, and favouring active and income-oriented strategies over pure passive exposure.