GRPN enters mid-September with a striking internal contradiction: short sellers are quietly retreating, yet the stock has lost 14% over the past month and the structural bear case remains intact.
The most important positioning development is the short squeeze that appears to be unwinding — or at least pausing. Short interest has dropped roughly 11% over the past month to 28.9% of the free float, with the bulk of that decline concentrated in the past week alone (-5.2%). That is still an exceptionally heavy short load. Nearly three in ten freely traded shares are sold short. The borrow market, however, has loosened considerably. Availability has climbed to 26% — tight by normal standards, but a dramatic improvement from the near-complete exhaustion seen in late August and early July, when availability was below 1% and the lending pool was effectively empty. Cost to borrow has fallen in step, now running at roughly 2.0% versus 2.6% a month ago. The picture is one of short sellers covering selectively, with the borrow market opening up as they do. Options traders are not filling the void: the put/call ratio of 0.30 is near the 52-week low of 0.30, well below its 20-day average, pointing to call-heavy positioning that aligns with the covering narrative rather than fresh bearish conviction.
The activist register adds another layer of complexity. Dusan Senkypl holds a Schedule 13D stake — a declared activist position — and filed an amendment as recently as August 10, disclosing 32% of the class, down from 34.1% previously. An activist on the register at that concentration level is one of the most consequential facts about this stock. Senkypl's incremental trimming bears watching, though his position remains dominant. Pale Fire Capital holds a further 25% of shares per its most recent filing. Between them, those two holders account for more than half the company. Millennium Management crossed the 5% threshold and filed a fresh Schedule 13G in August, adding institutional credibility to the register. (Stakes are as-last-disclosed around the 5% threshold; holders dropping below that level may not file again.)
The Street remains deeply divided, and the gap between bulls and bears is unusually wide. Goldman Sachs has a Sell rating with a $13 target — well below the $18.73 close — after raising it from $10 in May. Northland and Roth have Outperform and Buy ratings respectively, with older targets in the $44-$47 range that appear stale relative to current price levels and should be treated cautiously. The ORTEX short score of 79.1 ranks in the 2nd percentile of the universe on that metric — extreme short positioning by historical standards, even as the absolute level eases. Factor scores reinforce the caution: EPS surprise ranks in the 5th percentile, and days-to-cover ranks in the 12th. The PE multiple has compressed roughly 3.5 points over 30 days to 8.8x, reflecting both price weakness and earnings pressure. The bull case rests on bookings recovery and EBITDA improvement; the bear case points to management guidance flagging billings declines of 2.5%-5.0% and revenue declines of 5%-7.5%, with rising marketing costs adding friction.
Earnings history is unambiguous about what the market does when results disappoint. The August 2026 print produced a single-day drop of 8.7% and a five-day decline of 14.5%. Duplicate data in the snapshot suggests a single event, but the pattern is consistent: GRPN moves sharply and negatively on results. The next print is scheduled for November 6. That gives roughly eight weeks for the short-cover trade to play out — or reverse. Among close peers, ETSY fell 11.3% on the week and KSS shed 10.9%, making GRPN's relatively modest -0.7% weekly decline look like outperformance by comparison, though the month-long 14% drawdown undercuts that framing.
The key variable into November is whether the borrow market tightens again — a return toward sub-5% availability would signal renewed short-building — or whether the current loosening reflects a durable repositioning by bears who have already extracted their gains from the summer squeeze.
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