HubSpot Heads Into September Print Still Searching for a Bottom

HUBS enters its September 17 earnings release down 44% year-to-date, having shed nearly 9% in the past week alone, with the market still digesting a brutal August print that erased nearly 19% in a single session.

Short sellers are not pressing their advantage heading into this report. SI has collapsed nearly 46% over the past month to around 5.2% of the free float — from above 5.3 million shares in early August to roughly 2.7 million. The borrow market reinforces that picture: availability is extraordinarily loose at nearly 5,900% of shares already lent out, and the cost to borrow a negligible 0.29% annually. There is no meaningful short-side conviction here. Options positioning tells a similar story — the put/call ratio at 1.15 is fractionally below its 20-day average of 1.16, and the z-score of -0.80 rules out any unusual defensive hedging. With a short score of 37 and falling, ORTEX's composite ranking places HUBS well into the lower half of the universe on short pressure.

The real debate is about whether the business reset that triggered August's selloff is priced in or not. Bulls point to strong international retention, larger deal momentum, and a growing share buyback commitment to support EPS. The stock still screens as reasonably healthy on quality metrics — an F-score of 7 and solid free cash flow generation — and EPS momentum over the past 30 and 90 days ranks in the 73rd to 86th percentile of the universe. Against that, the consensus price target of $244 implies modest upside from $225, but the target range is wide and recent analyst activity reflects deep division. Stifel raised its target to $225 while holding at Hold — essentially saying fair value has caught up to the stock. RBC reiterated Outperform with a $300 target. TD Cowen had slashed from $250 to $220 after August's miss, then quickly reversed to $285 by September 1, a rapid recalibration that underlines analyst uncertainty. BMO downgraded outright in August. Bears flag the macro drag, FX exposure, government sector procurement risk, and competition from better-capitalised platforms — all genuine headwinds the August report did nothing to dismiss.

The institutional register offers a notable subplot. The Vanguard Group, which held over 10% of shares as recently as early 2026, disclosed a position of zero in a March 13G filing — one of the most dramatic disclosed exits in recent months among the 13D/G filings. That stake has since been partially replaced by separately-filed Vanguard entities (Vanguard Capital Management and Vanguard Portfolio Management still hold roughly 10% combined), but the sequential disclosures reflect a reshuffling rather than a clean continuity. T. Rowe Price, the largest disclosed holder at 8.7%, trimmed from 10.1%. AQR and Two Sigma added significantly in Q2, suggesting quantitative buyers have been stepping in where fundamental long-only holders have reduced. The September 17 print will test whether the company can credibly reset the growth narrative after a quarter in which it failed to deliver, and whether the valuation — now near 14x trailing earnings and 9x EV/EBITDA — finally prices in a slower-growth future.