Dino Polska enters the week of September 14 with its short score at a fresh peak and the borrow market materially tighter than it was just a fortnight ago — yet the stock itself is holding within 2% of its one-month high.
The lending story has continued to evolve since the last note. Availability has tightened to 150%, down from 177% a week ago and from above 200% at the start of September. To put that in context: when this squeeze began in early August, availability was running near 385%. That ratio has more than halved in six weeks, meaning borrowable supply has shrunk dramatically relative to the short positions already on. The pool is not empty — 150% availability still implies more shares can be borrowed than are currently out — but the direction of travel is unambiguous and has not paused. Cost to borrow has edged up alongside, reaching 0.86%, its highest reading of the past month, though it remains far too low to qualify as a borrow-crisis signal.
The ORTEX short score now reads 75.1, up from 70.5 two weeks ago and from 72.9 at the time of the last note. That trajectory — a gain of roughly 4.5 points across two weeks — is the clearest summary of how this setup has developed. The factor scores add useful colour: the short score ranks in just the 6th percentile of its universe, meaning fewer than one-in-seventeen stocks are rated as more heavily shorted by this composite measure. Days-to-cover ranks in the 8th percentile. Taken together, the scores describe a name where short-side pressure is elevated by most quantitative measures even if borrow costs have not yet reflected that.
The price setup complicates the bear narrative. The stock fell 1.6% on the week to PLN 35.40, but remains up 5.9% over the past month — and the analyst consensus mean target of PLN 35.74 sits almost exactly at current price. That makes the Street effectively neutral on valuation right now. The analyst score ranks in the 100th percentile on forward earnings estimates, suggesting the Street has been raising its view on earnings trajectory even as the stock has struggled to make fresh highs. The P/E multiple is 18.7x, up roughly 1.5 points over 30 days, while EV/EBITDA of 11.2x has edged slightly lower. Neither move is dramatic, but the gentle P/E expansion alongside a flat price implies earnings estimates have been nudged down modestly rather than up.
On ownership, the picture remains stable at the top. Founder Tomasz Biernacki holds 51.2% of shares and has not moved. BlackRock added roughly 1.1 million shares through August, and Capital Research added nearly 1 million — both small in absolute terms but directionally constructive from the passive side. Norges Bank trimmed by 5.7 million shares through June, a more notable move. Insider data is stale at almost a year old, so no current conviction signal can be drawn there.
The next scheduled earnings print is November 5. The prior two results produced day-one moves of +7% and +12.6% respectively, with five-day moves of +9% and +10.8% — a consistent pattern of upside surprises. That historical backdrop sets a reference point for how the market has responded to Dino's fundamental delivery, against which the current short buildup and tightening borrow market will be measured as the reporting date approaches.
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