Huntington Bancshares heads into its October earnings window with analysts trimming expectations and short sellers adding pressure for the second week running.
The most notable development this week landed on the Street. Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo — who initiated coverage just a month ago with an Overweight rating and a $23 target — slashed that target to $21 today, a $2 cut within weeks of opening the position. That reversal is worth noting: initiating and immediately walking back a target signals more uncertainty about the near-term path than a typical maintenance trim. The broader analyst picture remains constructive in direction — consensus holds at buy, with 11 buy-rated analysts and a mean price target of $20.30 — but the drift is clearly downward. Bank of America downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy in late July after Q2 results missed on net interest income, and Morgan Stanley also stepped down to Equal-Weight. Several other firms maintained positive ratings but trimmed targets into the $19-$21 range. With the stock at $16.75, the gap to consensus target implies meaningful upside, but the target trajectory is moving the wrong way.
Short interest is building, though the story isn't extreme. Shorts added roughly 12% to their position over the past week, pushing the SI % of free float to 3.5% — the highest level since early August, when it briefly touched similar territory before retreating sharply through mid-month. At 3.5%, this isn't a crowded short by any measure, but the direction of travel is consistent: bears have been adding since early September, tracking the stock's 6.5% monthly decline. Borrowing costs ticked up to 0.52%, their highest reading in the 30-day window. Availability remains extraordinarily loose at nearly 4,000% — there is no shortage of shares to borrow, and no squeeze mechanics are in play. Options are edging toward caution too, with the put/call ratio at 0.92, slightly above its 20-day average of 0.86 and near the top of its recent range, though well below the 52-week high of 0.97. The short score has nudged to 33.3, its highest level in the 10-day history shown, but this remains a mid-range reading — not a flashing warning.
The bull and bear cases reflect a classic regional bank debate. Bulls point to Huntington's organic growth in attractive Midwest and Southeast markets, management's discipline on commercial real estate exposure, and revenue diversification through capital markets and wealth management. The forward earnings growth factor ranks in the 94th percentile — a striking number, though likely influenced by a low base-year comparison rather than outright acceleration. Bears counter that Q2 results disappointed on net interest margin, core operating expenses ran hot, and deposit competition remains intense. The stock trades at roughly 9.4x earnings and 1.05x book — not demanding, which is partly why the buy consensus remains intact, but undemanding multiples can persist when the earnings revision cycle is moving against you. The EPS surprise factor ranks in only the 17th percentile, suggesting the bank has been missing rather than beating consensus more often than not.
Among the closest peers, the week has been mixed but generally soft for the regional bank group. FITB managed a small weekly gain of 0.3%, and CFG was flat. But KEY, USB, ZION, and RF all closed the week in negative territory, with Regions Financial down over 1.3% — suggesting the pressure on HBAN is a sector-wide phenomenon rather than an idiosyncratic story. Huntington's 0.06% weekly decline is actually modest relative to some of its peers, though the month-long underperformance of 6.5% tells a more uncomfortable story.
The next scheduled earnings release is October 22. Between now and then, the key variables are whether net interest income guidance stabilises, how the deposit repricing picture evolves into year-end, and whether further analyst target cuts follow Mayo's move today.
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