Vail Resorts heads into its September 28 earnings print with an activist on the register, shorts holding stubbornly above 15% of the float, and Goldman Sachs newly on the sell side — a setup that puts the bull case firmly on trial.
The most newsworthy development this week is structural rather than price-driven. Oasis Management filed an updated Schedule 13D on September 16, trimming its stake slightly from 6.5% to 6.2% — but the activist flag remains firmly planted. Oasis first filed in February and has now amended four times, signalling sustained engagement rather than a passive position-building exercise. That 13D designation matters: it signals intent to influence the company, not merely hold for return. As always with these disclosures, the stake is as-last-disclosed and Oasis could move below 5% without a further filing — but for now, the activist presence adds a layer of complexity to the story that pure-fundamental investors cannot ignore.
Short interest is the other number worth sitting with. At 15.8% of the free float, the short position is large by any standard — ranking in the 4th percentile of the ORTEX universe on the short score factor, meaning almost no other stock carries a heavier relative short burden. The short score itself has been sticky, ranging between 73.7 and 75.6 over the past ten days and settling at 74.8 on September 15. What's notable is the direction of travel: short interest has fallen roughly 14.8% over the past month, from a peak near 6.69 million shares in early August to just under 5.70 million now. That's meaningful cover — but at 15.8% of float, the residual short is still a major feature of the stock, not background noise.
The borrow market tells a less stressed story than the headline short level implies. Cost to borrow is running at just 0.67%, down from above 1% in early August — easy-borrow territory for what is ostensibly a heavily shorted name. Availability sits at 134%, meaning there are roughly 1.3 shares available to lend for every share currently borrowed, which is well within the normal range. The 52-week tightest reading was 44% availability, so current conditions are considerably looser than the most stressed point of the past year. Options positioning has also softened: the put/call ratio at 1.42 is running below its 20-day average of 1.55, the z-score a full standard deviation beneath the mean. That's a notable shift from mid-August, when the PCR was touching 1.72. The combination — easy borrow, declining shorts, softer put demand — suggests the short-side pressure that defined August is partially unwinding ahead of earnings.
The Street remains divided in ways that matter. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage in August with a Sell rating and a $132 target, the most bearish anchor from a major house — and at $138, MTN is already trading above that target. Barclays carries an Underweight with a $119 target, implying meaningful downside from here. Against those, Truist maintains a Buy but cut its target to $195 from $212 after the June earnings print, and Mizuho holds an Outperform at $191. The consensus mean target of $147 sits only modestly above the current price. The bull case — revised marketing strategy, potential pass-sale recovery, Rob Katz's return as a steadying hand — is plausible but dependent on execution. The bear case names the harder structural issues: post-COVID demand normalisation, climate risk to snowfall, and moderating pricing power. EPS momentum over 90 days ranks in the 93rd percentile, suggesting estimate revisions have been broadly positive over the medium term — but 30-day EPS momentum at the 46th percentile points to more recent trimming. EV/EBITDA has barely moved over 30 days, running at 9.6x, and the PE at 20.2x has compressed slightly over the past month.
Peer performance over the week sharpens the relative picture. BKNG fell 5% and NCLH dropped 7% on the week — both closely correlated to MTN and both underperforming. HGV shed 6.5%. MTN's 3.8% weekly gain therefore looks more like a sector rotation story than a fundamental re-rating. EXPE was the week's outperformer among leisure peers at +6.7%, and MTN's move rhymes with that. The June earnings print produced a -3% one-day reaction, and the one before that a modest +1.1% — a narrow but slightly negative skew into a print that will land September 28.
The next twelve days are therefore less about where short interest settles and more about whether the September 28 release gives the activist and the bulls something to work with — or hands the Goldman bears their first validation.
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