COPX — the Global X Copper Miners ETF — is navigating its sharpest weekly selloff in months, with short sellers rebuilding positions just as borrow availability collapses to its tightest level all year.
The price move sets the tone. COPX fell 10.4% on the week to $84.59, reversing almost all of the ground gained during the commodity optimism rally documented in late August. That prior note flagged copper futures surging on infrastructure and Fed-cut expectations. This week, that narrative cracked — and the short positioning data suggests the reversal was not a surprise to everyone.
The most striking development is in the lending market. Availability has plummeted from roughly 330% a week ago to just 90% now — a collapse of more than 60% in seven days, the sharpest tightening in the 30-day window. The 52-week low on availability was 37.8%, so there is room to tighten further, but the directional move is aggressive. Short interest at 9.6% of free float is not extreme by itself, but the trajectory matters: it rose 17% over the past month, and the most recent week saw an intra-week build followed by a modest pullback, suggesting active repositioning rather than stale conviction. Cost to borrow is low at 0.26% — cheap enough that new shorts face no meaningful friction entering positions, even as availability shrinks. The ORTEX short score has climbed from 44.7 on September 2 to 55.6 now, a two-week trend worth watching.
Options positioning, however, tells a different story. Call demand has been running well above put demand — the put/call ratio is 0.38, more than a full standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.42, and the 52-week low on the PCR sits at 0.15, meaning there is historical precedent for even more bullish options positioning. That divergence is the tension of the week: short sellers are rebuilding and borrow availability is tightening, yet the options market is skewed toward calls rather than defensive puts. Either options traders are fading the short sellers, or the ETF structure itself (hedging via ETF rather than options) is distorting the read.
On the broader picture, COPX is an ETF with no single-company earnings catalyst or analyst coverage to speak of. The valuation and analyst angles are not applicable here. What drives the fund is copper price direction, macro sentiment toward China and global infrastructure, and positioning flows. The one-month performance of just -1.3% suggests the weekly drop is an acute move rather than a grinding bear trend — which fits with a picture of tactical short sellers pressing a near-term thesis rather than structural repositioning.
The key variable to watch next week is whether borrow availability continues to tighten — if it approaches the 52-week low near 38%, the cost to borrow will likely spike and the squeeze dynamics will shift meaningfully — or whether the options market's call-skew proves prescient and the selloff finds a floor.
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