Options traders are turning the most bullish on RCL in a year. The put-call ratio dropped to 1.21 on September 17 — the lowest reading in 52 weeks. That compares to a 20-day mean of 1.34 and a 52-week high of 2.08. Call buying is accelerating with earnings on October 27.
Yet short interest is moving in the opposite direction.
The PCR z-score sits at -1.22 — not extreme, but directionally clear. Options traders are shedding puts and adding calls at the fastest pace all year.
Short sellers are simultaneously adding exposure. SI hit 3.9% of free float on September 17, up 13.5% in one week. That's roughly 10.6 million shares short.
The two camps are lining up on opposite sides ahead of the same catalyst.
Neither side faces friction in the lending market. Availability stands at 1,388% — meaning there are nearly 14 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. Cost to borrow is 0.51%, barely above the risk-free rate.
That level of availability makes short covering easy. It also means there is no mechanical squeeze pressure building. The short build is a deliberate positioning choice, not a trapped trade.
The stock has fallen 17.2% over the past month. It closed at $249.74 on September 17. The analyst consensus price target is $346.92 — implying 38.9% upside from current levels.
Multiple firms raised targets after Q2 earnings on July 28, when the stock moved 6.1% in a single day. Wells Fargo went to $388. Stifel sits at $415. Morgan Stanley, the most cautious, holds an Equal-Weight with a $300 target. Consensus remains firmly at Buy.
Capital Research and Management holds 29.4% of shares. Capital Research Global Investors raised its stake to 12.8% as of August 12, up from 10.5% previously. These are long-only passive signals, not activist bets.
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