JP Morgan's downgrade of CIB has coincided with a notable build in short positions. The Colombian bank's NYSE-listed shares now sit at $98.23 — below both analyst targets and the stock's own recent highs.
The same JP Morgan analyst who upgraded Grupo Cibest S.A. to Overweight in August — raising the target to $110 from $70 — reversed course this week. Yuri Fernandes at JP Morgan downgraded the stock back to Neutral, maintaining the $110 price target.
The move stands out for its speed. The upgrade came on August 11. The downgrade followed just five weeks later, on September 16.
Goldman Sachs remains more constructive. Tito Labarta raised his target to $110 from $98 in August, reiterating a Buy rating. That leaves the consensus at Hold, with eight analysts sitting neutral and one at outperform.
The stock trades at $98.23. The $110 consensus target implies roughly 12% upside — but JP Morgan's swift about-face suggests conviction in that number may be fading.
Short sellers have been adding exposure. The estimated short position grew 14.6% in one week to 625,916 shares. Over the past month, shorts are up 38% on a week-on-week comparison basis.
That said, the absolute level remains modest. The percent-of-float figure is not available in the dataset, but with nearly 9.7 million shares available to borrow and availability at 5,478% — far above normal — the lending market is exceptionally loose. Borrowing CIB shares costs just 0.61% annualised.
The ORTEX short score sits at 28.1. It briefly spiked to 30.2 on September 8 but has since retreated. No sustained short pressure is evident.
The put/call ratio moved sharply in mid-September. It stood near 0.48 in mid-August. It now sits at 1.38 — meaning more puts than calls are outstanding.
The 20-day PCR average is 1.06, and the current reading is about one standard deviation above that. Options traders appear to be hedging more actively since the JP Morgan downgrade landed.
Next earnings are due November 10. CIB has moved more than 4% on each of its last three earnings days. With the stock down nearly 5% in the past week and analysts divided, the Q3 print will be the clearest test of whether JP Morgan's caution was premature or prescient.
Data summary
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