The most striking development on FPX this week is not in the lending market — it is in options. A put/call ratio at its 52-week low signals a dramatic shift in how traders are positioning. That shift arrives against a backdrop of still-tight borrow conditions that have persisted since our last report.
The PCR hit 0.0159 on September 22. That is the lowest reading in 52 weeks. The 52-week high was 1.1667. For most of August and September, the PCR hovered near 0.25. The collapse happened in two days — September 21 and 22.
The z-score sits at -3.0. That is a three-standard-deviation move below the 20-day mean of 0.23. Call volume has swamped puts by a ratio of roughly 63-to-1. This is the most extreme options positioning on this ETF in at least a year.
The ETF itself is up 4.9% over the past week and closed at $182.77 on September 22.
The previous report noted availability collapsing from above 2,000% in mid-August toward 280% by September 17. Since then, the direction has partially reversed.
Availability now stands at 236% — still within tight territory by historical standards for this ETF. It peaked above 2,000% as recently as August 17. The week-on-week change is -40%.
Cost to borrow reached 3.55% on September 22. That is up 104% over one week. One month ago it was below 2%. The borrow cost has more than doubled in 30 days.
Short interest remains very low in absolute terms — just 0.34% of free float. The short position is not the story. The cost and availability of that borrow is.
The options market is pricing a strongly bullish outcome. The borrow market tells a different story — shorts are paying meaningfully more to maintain positions, and availability has tightened dramatically since August.
These two readings are not necessarily contradictory. A crowded long position in options can exist alongside a stressed borrow market. What is unusual is the severity of both signals arriving simultaneously on an ETF.
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