FPX Options Flip Bullish as Borrow Market Stays Stressed

The most striking development on FPX this week is not in the lending market — it is in options. A put/call ratio at its 52-week low signals a dramatic shift in how traders are positioning. That shift arrives against a backdrop of still-tight borrow conditions that have persisted since our last report.

Options Signal a Sharp Sentiment Turn

The PCR hit 0.0159 on September 22. That is the lowest reading in 52 weeks. The 52-week high was 1.1667. For most of August and September, the PCR hovered near 0.25. The collapse happened in two days — September 21 and 22.

The z-score sits at -3.0. That is a three-standard-deviation move below the 20-day mean of 0.23. Call volume has swamped puts by a ratio of roughly 63-to-1. This is the most extreme options positioning on this ETF in at least a year.

The ETF itself is up 4.9% over the past week and closed at $182.77 on September 22.

Borrow Market: Stressed but Easing Slightly

The previous report noted availability collapsing from above 2,000% in mid-August toward 280% by September 17. Since then, the direction has partially reversed.

Availability now stands at 236% — still within tight territory by historical standards for this ETF. It peaked above 2,000% as recently as August 17. The week-on-week change is -40%.

Cost to borrow reached 3.55% on September 22. That is up 104% over one week. One month ago it was below 2%. The borrow cost has more than doubled in 30 days.

Short interest remains very low in absolute terms — just 0.34% of free float. The short position is not the story. The cost and availability of that borrow is.

Two Markets, Opposite Signals

The options market is pricing a strongly bullish outcome. The borrow market tells a different story — shorts are paying meaningfully more to maintain positions, and availability has tightened dramatically since August.

These two readings are not necessarily contradictory. A crowded long position in options can exist alongside a stressed borrow market. What is unusual is the severity of both signals arriving simultaneously on an ETF.

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• PCR: 0.0159 (52-week low; z-score -3.0)
• PCR 20-day mean: 0.23
• Availability: 236% (down 40% week-on-week; 52-week low: 9.46%)
• Cost to borrow: 3.55% (+104% week-on-week)
• Short interest % of free float: 0.34%
• FPX price: $182.77 (+4.9% past week)