Barrick Mining enters the final week of September riding a gold-sector rally — but the most telling shift since last week's note is a sharp retreat in short positions, even as the insider selling flagged seven days ago has yet to reverse.
Short interest dropped 13% in a week, falling from roughly 18.4 million shares to 15.9 million, now representing less than 1% of free float. That move brings SI back to levels last seen in early September, before a brief build through mid-month. The reduction matters less as a squeeze story — at under 1% of float, there was never meaningful short pressure — and more as a directional signal that the few bears who had rebuilt positions through September have now stepped back. Borrow conditions confirm there is nothing to watch in the lending market: cost to borrow has eased to 0.43%, its lowest level of the past month, and availability is effectively unconstrained, with over a billion shares available to lend. The short score of 27.9 ranks in the 80th percentile for low short activity — positioning looks almost entirely clean.
The price action fits the sector. Barrick gained 4.2% on the week to close at CAD 61.81, broadly in line with close peers. Kinross added 3.6% and 3.8% over the same period, while , , and outpaced the group with gains of 8.4%, 7.9%, and 10% respectively. Barrick's move was solid, but it lagged the smaller-cap names — consistent with the pattern of a broad gold rally lifting the sector, with higher-beta producers seeing the biggest percentage moves. The one-month picture is softer: Barrick is still down 5.7% over 30 days, suggesting the week's gain is partial recovery rather than a breakout.
On valuation, the trailing PE has eased to around 10.5x and EV/EBITDA to 5.0x — both up modestly on the week with the price, but still undemanding for a senior gold producer running a Piotroski F-score of 9 and posting 43% year-on-year sales growth. The dividend score ranks in the 97th percentile, and the most recent declared dividend of $0.245 implies a forward yield near 2.4% at current prices. EPS momentum over 90 days ranks in the 27th percentile, and the 12-month forward EPS growth score of 15 is a softer note — the Street is not expecting an earnings step-change, even as the gold price environment remains supportive.
The insider picture has not materially changed since last week's note. Net insider activity over 90 days remains negative at roughly -$14 million in disclosed value, with the cluster of August sales by Rich, Teslik, Hill, and Bock all executed at prices between $44.80 and $62.12 — in most cases below where the stock trades today. The single open-market buy from Teslik at $47.69 remains the lone offset. The August sales were disclosed at prices now sitting below the current close; no new trades have been reported through the August 24 as-of date. That gap in disclosure means the picture is incomplete, but the direction of the net signal has not shifted.
Earnings are next scheduled for November 9. Barrick's last quarterly result produced an 8.4% one-day drop and a further 3.3% drag over five days — a pattern worth keeping in mind as the stock approaches that date with a month of price recovery already priced in.
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