TD heads into the final week of September having clawed back 2.2% on the week to CAD 172.71, but a steady uptick in short positions over the past month introduces a mild undercurrent worth watching.
The price recovery looks solid on the surface. TD has added 7.1% over the past month and trades at a P/E of 15.8x and price-to-book of 2.4x — multiples that have drifted higher through September, with the 30-day P/E expansion running at 0.37 turns. The consensus mean price target of CAD 178.36 implies roughly 3% upside from current levels — a narrow gap that suggests the Street sees the stock as fairly valued rather than deeply discounted. EPS momentum is notably strong, however. TD ranks in the 94th percentile on 30-day EPS momentum and the 81st percentile over 90 days, with a recent quarterly core cash EPS print of $2.20 beating consensus by 7%. Analyst forecasts for fiscal 2025 and 2026 have moved up 2–3% on the back of that beat, driven by a net interest margin of 3.19% and an improving Canadian credit picture. The dividend score sits in the 89th percentile, reflecting TD's history as a reliable income name.
Short positioning is rising, though it remains far too thin to call a meaningful bear thesis. Short interest has climbed 14.5% over the past month to reach 1.8% of the free float — building steadily from roughly 26.9 million shares in mid-August to 30.8 million now. That's a clear directional move, but at under 2% of float it stays well within the range of routine hedging activity rather than conviction shorting. The lending market reinforces that read: availability is extraordinarily loose at 8,864% — meaning there are nearly 89 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out — so any escalation in short positioning faces no friction whatsoever. Borrowing costs are also negligible at 0.60%, down sharply from a brief spike to 1.70% in early September. Days to cover sit at 6.3, which is the one metric that merits a second glance given daily volume, but the overall setup is far from squeezed.
The ownership picture is stable and tilted toward passive flows. BlackRock recently crossed 5% with 85.5 million shares, filing a Schedule 13G in April 2026 — a passive stake, not an activist push. Vanguard Capital Management filed its first 13G in July 2026 at a 5.0% position, adding another large index-driven anchor. Bank of Montreal trimmed its reported stake to just below 5% in August 2025, slipping off the 13D/G register — as the standard disclosure caveat notes, holders can exit the 5% threshold without a further filing, so its current position is unknown. The insider register shows only offsetting share transfers by the bank itself, likely related to compensation or trust mechanics, netting to zero over 90 days. No director or officer open-market buying or selling appears in the data.
Canadian banking peers had a broadly positive week. RY added 1.0% and BNS gained 1.8%, while CM and NA both moved 2.4–2.8% higher. TD's 2.2% weekly gain tracked the pack without standing out, suggesting the week's move was sector-driven rather than TD-specific. US regional peers told a different story: KEY and CFG both fell sharply on the week, down 5.6% and 6.8% respectively, highlighting the relative resilience of Canadian bank credits against US regional bank pressure.
Next quarter's earnings are scheduled for December 3. The past two prints each delivered positive one-day moves of around 1.7%, and five-day reactions settled near 2.4% — a muted but consistently positive post-earnings pattern. With short interest drifting higher into that date and the Street pricing in a tight band around fair value, the question heading into December is whether TD's EPS momentum can sustain the beat rate that has re-rated the stock through the second half of 2026.
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