PETR4 is outperforming its own peer group this week — down just 4.1% while the broader crude complex takes a harder beating — and the positioning data explains why shorts have little appetite to press the trade.
The borrow market is about as uncrowded as it gets. Availability is effectively unlimited, with the lending pool showing over 9,999% availability — more than 129 million shares sitting idle with almost no demand to borrow them. That tracks with the very low short score of 25.1, which has barely moved in two weeks and ranks in the 97th percentile for stocks least likely to be squeezed. Cost to borrow, last recorded at 0.64% in early September, is near multi-month lows despite a 21% uptick on the week — still firmly in "easy borrow" territory and nowhere near the 1% levels seen during the April volatility. The utilization picture reinforces this: the 52-week peak was just 10.8%, hit briefly in late August before collapsing back toward zero within days. Days-to-cover ranks in the 95th percentile of lightly shorted names globally. There is no short-side pressure here.
The more interesting angle is how the stock compares with its peers this week. Correlated E&P names CHRD and are down 13.4% and 13.1% respectively. has shed 11.3%. Even is off 7.1%. Petrobras's modest 4.1% decline looks almost defensive by comparison, and the month tells an even starker story — PETR4 is up 9.1% over 30 days, a period during which most dollar-denominated crude names have struggled. The stock's September recovery appears rooted in BRL strength and domestic demand for its yield, rather than any oil price tailwind.
That yield story is genuinely compelling. The dividend score ranks in the 97th percentile of all names in the ORTEX universe. Petrobras paid a BRL 0.47 dividend in late August — the largest of the past year's payments — and has consistently distributed capital in recent quarters. Against a closing price of BRL 48.35, the DPS/price ratio runs close to 10%, a level that mechanically anchors income-focused local buyers. The P/E is 4.7x and EV/EBITDA sits at just 3.3x, multiples that have compressed marginally over 30 days but remain deeply discounted to integrated oil peers globally. The price-to-book at 1.1x reflects how little premium the market assigns to state interference risk.
The ownership picture adds context. The Brazilian government directly holds 29% of shares. BNDESPAR, the state development bank's investment arm, adds another 8%. BlackRock recently added nearly 90 million shares to reach a 6% stake, and GQG Partners added 16 million to hold 5.6%. These are not trivial moves — BlackRock's increase in particular represents a meaningful conviction add from a global passive and active manager into a name carrying overt political risk. Capital Research and Arrowstreet also added materially in recent months. The insider data for July and early August shows a "Controlador" — the government-linked controlling entity — selling aggregate blocks totalling roughly 24 million shares in late July at prices around BRL 41-43, well below current levels. That selling has since stopped, at least through the last reported date.
Earnings are pencilled in for November 10. The two most recent quarterly prints produced muted single-day moves — a fractional gain and a loss of around 2.5% — though the May 2026 print saw a 4% drop that faded within a week. What to watch into that date is whether BRL strength holds (it has been the quiet tailwind all month) and whether oil markets stabilise enough to lift earnings expectations, which currently rank in only the 21st percentile for forward year-on-year EPS growth.
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