GDX enters the final week of September with an interesting split: the ETF posted a solid 3.9% gain on the week to close at $97.83, yet shorts remain structurally elevated and options traders are running persistently defensive positioning. The tension between improving price action and cautious sentiment is the story this week.
Short sellers have pulled back modestly, but the position remains substantial. Short interest is running at 12.4% of free float — a genuinely elevated level for an ETF — and that figure has barely moved, edging down just 0.16% on the week and 1.4% over the past month. The slow, grinding reduction suggests shorts are trimming rather than covering aggressively, even as the fund bounces. Borrow conditions tell a similar story: the cost to borrow has collapsed 42% over the past week to just 0.39%, its lowest level in the 30-day window, pointing to plenty of supply entering the lending market. Availability has loosened meaningfully too — at 117.6%, there are now roughly 1.2 shares available for every share already borrowed, up from below 100% earlier in the week and well above the tightest point of the year, which hit 9.3%.
Options positioning is where the structural caution shows up most clearly. GDX has been running a persistently elevated put/call ratio — 1.45 on Tuesday versus a 20-day mean of 1.49 — and the 52-week low for that ratio is 0.91. In other words, the ETF has not seen a period of genuine bullish options positioning all year. The current reading is roughly in line with its recent average (z-score of -0.35), so there is no fresh panic baked in. But the persistent skew toward puts, well above the year's floor, tells you that options traders are treating this ETF as a vehicle for hedging rather than expressing directional upside conviction.
The ORTEX short score of 65.2 reinforces the cautious read. It has been remarkably stable over the past two weeks, fluctuating between 64.4 and 65.6 — a narrow band that reflects settled rather than deteriorating sentiment. For context, a score in the mid-60s places GDX in elevated-attention territory without flashing an extreme reading in either direction.
On the institutional side, the ownership picture adds texture. BMO Asset Management is the largest disclosed holder at 5.8% of shares, and added 1.76 million shares in the most recent reporting period. Morgan Stanley holds 3.7% and added 4.55 million shares through June — a meaningful build. Goldman Sachs moved the other way, trimming 2.5 million shares to bring its position to 1.35% of the fund. That divergence — broker-dealers on opposite sides — suggests the institutional community is not aligned on direction.
The macro backdrop running through recent commentary has centred on dollar weakness, geopolitical risk, and central bank policy divergence lifting bullion prices and boosting gold-mining equities relative to the broader market. GDX has given back 4.9% over the past month despite this week's rally, so the rebound is recovering ground rather than breaking new territory. What to watch next is whether the combination of easing borrow costs and loosening availability draws fresh short-side interest back into the fund, or whether continued gold strength forces a more decisive short-covering episode in a position that has been stubbornly slow to unwind.
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