AVGO has reclaimed nearly everything it lost this month, gaining 7.4% on the week to $364.54, and the positioning data has shifted to match — bears stayed quiet on the way down, and they're still quiet on the way up.
The options market is the most telling update from last week's note. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.99, now running a full standard deviation below its 20-day average of 1.03. That's a meaningful shift from the more neutral readings of mid-September and marks the most call-tilted setup in several weeks. Bulls are no longer just absent from the put side — they're actively buying calls into the rally. The PCR still sits well above its 52-week low of 0.89, so this isn't extreme bullish positioning, but the direction of travel is clear.
Short interest is fading further, not building, despite the sharp price recovery. SI as a percentage of the free float has pulled back to 1.03% — down from the September 15 reading of 1.09% cited in the previous note, and down nearly 20% over the past month from a peak that barely reached 1.50%. The borrow market remains almost entirely frictionless: cost to borrow has fallen 42% on the week to just 0.22%, and availability is at maximum — there is no meaningful short infrastructure in place, and no sign one is forming. When a stock rallies 7% in a week with shorts already covering, the squeeze dynamic simply doesn't apply here; the move is being driven by buyers, not forced covering.
The Street remains firmly in the bull camp, though recent analyst activity reveals some nuance. Citigroup raised its target to $515 and Raymond James lifted to $475 following early September earnings. Morgan Stanley also nudged its target up to $505. The more cautious read comes from DA Davidson, which trimmed to $350 — the only sub-$400 target in the group — and Piper Sandler's fresh initiation at $460 with an Overweight rating. The consensus mean of $531 implies roughly 46% upside from current levels, though the stock at $364 is running well below where most of those targets were set. Factor scores lean constructive: analyst recommendation differential ranks in the 99th percentile, the dividend score also hits 99, and the short score of 29.3 sits comfortably low — reflecting how thin the bear case has become in the lending market.
The bull case rests on AI semiconductor demand driving projected revenue doubling in 2027 and 2028, with strong custom accelerator design wins and enterprise networking growth. Bears point to the usual Broadcom headwinds: China exposure, customer concentration, margin compression risk as the product mix shifts, and elevated debt from past acquisitions. The near-term earnings history is also worth keeping in mind — the last two quarterly reports each triggered day-one declines of 2.5% to 3.4%, suggesting the stock often disappoints on the initial read even when the longer-term thesis holds. The next earnings date is December 10.
Institutional ownership shows BlackRock added 12.3 million shares through August, the largest single move among the top holders. FMR added 20.2 million shares over the same period. The insider register is net negative over 90 days — roughly $282 million in net sales — but the recent September transactions were tax-withholding codes rather than open-market discretionary sales, which carry less signal. The activist register carries only passive 13G holders; no 13D activist is on file.
What to watch from here is whether the options PCR continues drifting toward its 52-week low, and whether short interest — already negligible — makes any attempt to rebuild as the stock approaches the $380-$400 zone where several insiders were selling in July.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open AVGO on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
