FOXA heads into its October 14 earnings print with short sellers sitting near a year-long high and analysts sharply divided on the stock's direction.
Short interest is the defining feature of the current setup. Bears have built a substantial position — 22.4% of the free float is sold short, up roughly 3% over the past month and continuing to climb this week. That is not a crowded-in-a-day story; it has been a steady grind higher since mid-August, when short interest was closer to 21%. The ORTEX short score reflects that persistence, running at 72.5 — elevated and broadly stable in the high-70s through last week before ticking down marginally. Factor scores reinforce the picture: FOXA ranks in just the 4th percentile on short score rank and 16th on days-to-cover, placing it firmly in the heavily-shorted tier of the broadcasting universe.
The borrow market, however, tells a less aggressive story than the headline short interest number might suggest. Availability has actually loosened over the week — currently at roughly 197% of outstanding short interest, up from around 169% a week ago. That means there are nearly two shares available to borrow for every one already shorted, which is comfortably in the "tight but workable" range and well off the year's tightest reading of 112% hit in early September. Cost to borrow has also eased, running at just 0.55% — low enough to impose almost no friction on short positions. The lending market is not signalling a squeeze in the making. Options confirm the same story: the put/call ratio is running slightly below its 20-day average at 0.63, modestly call-skewed relative to recent norms — hardly a defensive pile-up ahead of earnings.
The Street is broadly constructive despite the heavy short position, and the gap between analyst conviction and bearish positioning is the clearest tension in the name right now. Citizens initiated coverage on September 14 with a Market Outperform and a $95 target — the most bullish call on the board. Guggenheim reiterated Buy this week, holding its $85 target. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both upgraded the stock last month after the August earnings beat, lifting targets to $82 and $80 respectively. The mean target across the coverage universe is $76, implying roughly 19% upside from the current $64.25. The bull case centres on Tubi's advertising momentum, live sports as an anchor for a fragmenting pay-TV market, and the Roku integration bringing new distribution muscle. Bears push back on structural pay-TV decline and balance sheet risk from the Roku deal. Valuation looks undemanding on the numbers available: the stock trades at around 10.9x earnings and 7.7x EV/EBITDA — not a stretched multiple for a business with a clear live-programming moat. The analyst recommendation differential factor ranks in the 96th percentile, meaning the directional lean from the Street is as bullish as it gets relative to peers.
That bullish lean from analysts has recent earnings history to point to. The August 6 print produced a 9.1% single-day gain, and the stock was up 11.5% five days later — a strong reaction that followed a meaningful upside surprise. The October 14 event is therefore framed by the question of whether advertising momentum holds. Peers are offering a mixed read this week: SBGI fell nearly 7% on the week while VSNT dropped over 10%, suggesting broader broadcast sentiment has softened. NWSA — the Murdoch family's other listed vehicle — was down 3.9%, roughly in line with FOXA's own 4.9% weekly decline.
What to watch into October 14: whether Tubi's ad revenue trajectory accelerates enough to close the gap between the $95 bull target and $60 bear cases, and whether short sellers — who have patiently built a 22% position against a stock most analysts rate Buy — begin covering ahead of a print that, last time around, cost them dearly.
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