The analyst wave that hit Microsoft this week shows no sign of reversing. Now the lending market is echoing the same message: borrow demand is fading, not building.
The cost to borrow MSFT shares fell 50% over the past week to 0.26% — the lowest level since late August. That move matters in context. When short sellers grow conviction, they chase borrows and drive costs up. The opposite is happening here.
Availability remains effectively unconstrained. Over 7.4 billion shares sit available to lend against a short position of roughly 75 million. That ratio is extraordinarily loose — the lending market is placing no friction whatsoever on new shorts, yet borrow costs are still falling. It signals that demand for shorts is actually declining, not just being met comfortably.
Short interest itself sits at just over 1% of free float. That level hasn't moved meaningfully in either direction this week. It's low, stable, and not the story.
Yesterday's convergence report covered the Stifel upgrade and the cluster of target hikes in detail. The picture hasn't shifted — if anything, it's consolidated.
Consensus stands at $577 from 39 Buy ratings and two Holds. No Sells. Stifel's Brad Reback moved to Buy from Hold on September 23, joining Oppenheimer ($570) and Cantor Fitzgerald ($608) in raising targets within the same 72-hour window. The bull thesis across all three is consistent: Copilot monetisation, enterprise AI adoption, and agentic workload revenue.
The stock closed at $500.59 on September 23, up 0.5% on the day and 2.1% on the week.
The put/call ratio came in at 0.40 on September 23. That's above the 20-day mean of 0.38 but still near the call-heavy end of the 52-week range — the 52-week low PCR was 0.30, the high was 0.85. Options positioning remains tilted toward calls. It is not flashing extreme readings in either direction.
Earnings land October 29. Five weeks is enough time for the analyst consensus to be tested by macro or sector moves. The borrow cost declining while the stock grinds higher is a consistent picture — shorts are not pressing, and the Street is not rewarding those who are. Watch whether borrow costs stay subdued as the October earnings date approaches.
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