TLT Bear Trade Reignites After Brief Retreat

The quiet retreat in TLT short positioning that marked mid-September has sharply reversed. Short interest has jumped back to 20.3% of free float — up 16% in a single week — erasing the unwind and then some.

Nine days ago, ORTEX data showed shorts trimming exposure and call buyers taking charge. That narrative has flipped. Bears are back, in size, and the cost of maintaining those positions is rising fast.

Short Interest Snaps Back Hard

Shares short hit 112.8 million as of September 24. That's up from 96.1 million just the week prior. The move is the sharpest weekly increase in the current dataset. The one-month gain now stands at 17.8%.

This isn't a slow bleed. It's a sudden and decisive rebuild of bearish positioning — the kind of move that suggests a catalyst-driven re-entry rather than a gradual drift.

Borrow Costs Climb in Lockstep

The cost to borrow TLT has risen 61% over the past week to 0.57%. That's the sharpest move since late August. The CTB spike on September 22 briefly touched 0.63% before settling back.

Rising borrow costs alongside rising short interest confirm demand is driving the move. More traders are competing for the same pool of lendable shares.

Availability Tightens Sharply

Availability has dropped to 220% — still in the tight-to-normal range, but the weekly move tells the real story. One week ago availability stood above 770%. It has since fallen nearly 79% in seven days.

The 52-week low availability reading is 78%. Current levels are still well above that floor. But the direction and pace of tightening warrant attention. If short interest continues climbing at this rate, availability will be tested.

Options Market Holds Bullish Lean

The put/call ratio sits at 0.52 — near its 52-week low of 0.52, and 1.56 standard deviations below the 20-day mean of 0.58. Options traders are still leaning toward calls. That's now a notable divergence from the short book.

The bearish positioning in the lending market and the bullish skew in options are pointing in opposite directions. One of these will prove wrong.

ORTEX Short Score Climbs

The ORTEX short score has moved from 53.4 on September 17 to 65.0 on September 23. That's the highest reading in the current history window. It reflects the combined pressure from rising short interest, tightening availability, and climbing borrow costs.

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• SI % of Free Float: 20.3% (up 16% week-on-week)
• Shares short: 112.8 million
• Cost to borrow: 0.57% (up 61% week-on-week)
• Availability: 220% (down ~79% week-on-week)
• Put/call ratio: 0.52 (near 52-week low, –1.56 z-score)
• ORTEX short score: 65.0 (up from 53.4 one week ago)
• Price: $79.42 (–2.9% week-on-week)