Liftoff Mobile enters the final week of September with a striking build in short positions against a stock already down 15% in a month — and an activist investor on the register with a Schedule 13D stake.
The short interest story is the most dramatic development here. Estimated short positions have nearly quadrupled over the past month, rising 374% from roughly 1.5 million shares in late August to 3.9 million by September 25. The week-on-week jump of 59% is the sharpest acceleration yet. FINRA's fortnightly data pegged official short interest at 2.4 million shares as of September 15, with days-to-cover running near 3.8. Borrow conditions are not yet stressed — availability remains comfortable at roughly 214% of estimated short interest, well above the 52-week tightest reading of 175%, and cost to borrow is a modest 2.85%. That combination — aggressive short-building but loose borrow — suggests this is deliberate directional pressure rather than a squeeze-constrained position. The ORTEX short score has climbed from 45 on September 14 to 63 by week-end, its highest reading in the observable window, reinforcing the picture of mounting bearish conviction.
Options positioning has shifted meaningfully in the same direction, though it has softened at the very end of the week. The put/call ratio ran above 2.7 for much of September, touching the 52-week high of 3.55 on September 2. By Thursday it had dropped to 1.44, more than a full standard deviation below the 20-day average of 2.27 — a notable reversal. That cooling may reflect some hedges being lifted or profit-taken after a sharp move in the stock. The reading is still above 1.0, meaning puts outweigh calls, but the trend in options is now diverging from the continued build in short positions.
The street's view on LFTO is split, and the recent initiations reflect that ambivalence. Piper Sandler kicked off coverage September 22 with a Neutral rating and a $19 target — six weeks after the stock traded above $20 and a week before it closed at $15.91. Freedom Capital Markets initiated with a Hold at $18 on September 10. Those are essentially at-or-near-market calls on a stock that has already de-rated sharply. The bulls — Tigress Financial, UBS, Wells Fargo, and BTIG — cluster their targets in the $34–$41 range, implying more than 100% upside from current levels. Morgan Stanley sits in the middle at $30 with an Equal-Weight. The consensus mean target of $33.40 has to be treated with some caution given how far the stock has fallen since many of those targets were set. The bear case centres on heavy debt from the Vungle acquisition, revenue concentration in mobile gaming, and the risk that AI-driven ad technology displaces Liftoff's programmatic model. The bull case is that the Vungle integration has delivered sustained growth and the stock's post-IPO weakness is an overreaction.
The ownership structure adds a layer of complexity that is unusual for a stock this size. General Atlantic filed a Schedule 13D on June 12, disclosing a 15% stake — and a 13D, unlike a passive 13G, signals active intent. General Atlantic also participated in the IPO-era raise, buying 1.3 million shares at $23 in early June in a $30 million open-market transaction. Blackstone, through BCP Redbird Aggregator, controls 49.5% of the class — a dominant position that keeps the effective float thin. Harry Robertson holds 5.7% as an individual. In aggregate, insiders and large pre-IPO holders effectively control more than 75% of shares outstanding. That float constraint is a double-edged factor: it can amplify moves in either direction. The August insider activity was all grant-type transactions (code A — compensation mechanics), not discretionary purchases, so those do not add meaningful conviction signal. As always with 13D/G filings, stakes are as-last-disclosed around the 5% threshold and holders can exit below that level without a further filing.
Valuation multiples have been compressing steadily. The price-to-book has fallen more than 1.9 points over the past month to 7.75, and the P/E has dropped 3.7 points to 13.2x. EV/EBITDA of 8.2x is modest for an ad-tech name with growth credentials, but the market is clearly not paying for that framework right now. The next earnings print is scheduled for November 12 — and the most recent comparable result, on August 12, saw the stock drop 17% on the day and nearly 20% over the following five sessions on weak Q3 guidance. That reaction set the context for everything since. With short interest still building, options cooler than they were but still net defensive, and a thin float dominated by strategic holders, the November 12 print will be the clearest test of whether the sell-off since IPO has run ahead of the fundamentals or whether the bears have correctly sized the challenge.
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