Analysts are trimming price targets on TMUS even as the borrow market remains extraordinarily loose. The cuts come ahead of October 22 earnings. Options traders briefly showed elevated hedging demand last week, though that positioning has since cooled.
Barclays reduced its price target to $200 from $215 this morning, maintaining an Overweight rating. That follows JP Morgan's cut last week — to $260 from $275, also Overweight. Wolfe Research went further in August, downgrading to Peer Perform from Outperform with no stated target.
The consensus target now sits at $243.52. TMUS trades at $166.45. That gap is wide. But the direction of analyst revisions is consistently downward — every action in the past three months has been a cut or a downgrade, not an upgrade.
The post-earnings pattern reinforces caution. The stock fell 4.9% on July 30 and 5.7% on July 23. Both earnings events produced negative five-day returns too.
The put-call ratio spiked to 0.681 on September 24 — 2.25 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.587. That was the standout signal that week.
It has since pulled back. The PCR as of September 28 stands at 0.608, just 0.37 standard deviations above the mean. The 52-week range runs from 0.360 to 0.918. Current positioning sits in the middle of that range. The brief spike in hedging demand did not persist.
Short interest rose 11.3% over the past week. It now sits at 1.56% of free float. That is a notable weekly move in share count terms — roughly 1.8 million additional shares — but the absolute level remains low for any meaningful squeeze dynamic.
The borrow market is extraordinarily accommodating. Availability is effectively uncapped — over 800 million shares remain available to borrow versus fewer than 18 million currently short. Cost to borrow has fallen 35% over the past week to just 0.16%. The lending market is placing no friction on new short positions.
Earnings land October 22. The stock is down 8.2% over the past month. Analysts continue lowering their targets toward current prices. The next question is whether the options market re-prices risk as that date approaches.
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