Bearish positioning in COP has collapsed over the past two weeks. Short interest is now at its lowest level since late August, cost to borrow has more than halved, and retail attention has just jumped 2.5 standard deviations above its own 90-day average. Three distinct signals are converging — and they're pointing in the same direction.
Short interest as a percentage of free float stood at 1.27% as of September 28. That is low in absolute terms, but the speed of the move is what stands out. Shorts fell 15.7% in a single week. Over the past month, the position has shrunk by 12.6%.
The decline started in earnest around September 21, when short shares sat above 18.2 million. By September 28, that figure had dropped to 15.7 million. Whoever was short has been covering.
The lending market confirms the retreat. Cost to borrow sat at 0.23% annually on September 28. That is down 56.8% from a week earlier, when it was 0.54%. Availability remains extremely loose — with an availability reading of 9,999%, there is vastly more borrowable stock than current short demand. The borrow has never been cheaper or easier. There is no squeeze dynamic here; shorts are simply walking away.
The alt data adds an interesting counterpoint. Wikipedia page views and ORTEX stock page traffic for ConocoPhillips registered a combined z-score of 2.53 as of September 27. That is 2.5 standard deviations above the company's own 90-day average.
This dataset tracks retail attention, not revenues. It has not been shown to lead ConocoPhillips's reported figures. But a sudden jump in interest — while short sellers are exiting — is worth noting as a convergence signal.
Street sentiment has been drifting more positive. UBS raised its target on September 14 to $169, up from $153, while maintaining a Buy. Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $151 in August. Wells Fargo sits at $189 — the highest on the Street. The consensus mean price target is $146.08, against a current price of $126.04. That implies meaningful upside on analysts' numbers. Earnings are next due on November 5.
The ORTEX short score has also edged lower, from 31.7 on September 17 to 30.2 on September 28, reflecting the easing of bearish positioning pressure.
What to watch: Whether the retail attention spike is fleeting, or whether it marks the start of a broader re-rating story ahead of the November 5 earnings print.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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