Ondas Inc. ends September with its short position near a month-long high, the borrow market still fully exhausted, and the options market finally pulling back from its most defensive extreme of the year.
The most meaningful shift this week is in the options market, and it is a partial easing rather than a reversal. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.48, down from the 0.51 spike flagged in the September 22 note, and the z-score has retreated to 0.81, a full standard deviation below where it was two weeks ago. That is still modestly above the 20-day average of 0.47, but the intensity of the put-buying has clearly come off. The prior note described options traders reaching for downside protection at a year-high intensity. That specific alarm has faded, though the PCR remains above the mid-year norms that prevailed through August.
The short book itself has shifted in a way that matters. Short interest climbed 2.7% on the week to 64.3% of free float, reversing the mild covering that was visible in mid-September. That brings the position back toward the upper end of the range it has occupied since the August covering wave, and it does so even as the stock fell 3.1% to $7.48. The bears absorbed last week's 6.6% bounce and added to their positions. Borrow availability remains at 0%. Every share in the lending pool is lent out, a condition that has persisted without interruption across every session in the 30-day history. Borrowing costs, however, have continued to fall. The cost to borrow dropped another 4.5% on the week to 4.88%, roughly half the 11.7% rate seen in mid-August. That steady decline points to a more stable borrow rather than a squeeze-ready setup: shorts are paying less to hold their positions, not more.
The Street remains almost uniformly bullish, with every named analyst carrying a Buy or Outperform rating and a mean price target of $19.42, implying roughly 160% upside to Tuesday's close. Needham reiterated its Buy with a $19 target on September 14. The most recent target raises came from Ladenburg Thalmann and Oppenheimer in August, both lifting after the Q2 print. The bull case rests on record Q2 revenue of $83.8 million, up 1,235% year-on-year, a backlog exceeding $800 million, and accelerating orders totalling $105 million quarter-to-date in Q3. The bear case focuses on ongoing EBITDA losses, acquisition complexity from DZYNE and Cyberhawk, and a low-margin Mistral contract that weighs on the second half. The gap between analyst optimism and the short book at 64% of float is the defining tension in this stock. The ORTEX short score of 72.3 places the stock in the bottom 2% of the universe on short positioning, while the EPS surprise factor ranks in the 96th percentile, a combination that captures the fundamental-versus-sentiment split precisely.
On the ownership register, an activist flag is worth noting. Joseph V. Popolo filed a Schedule 13D amendment in June 2025, and his stake has since fallen from 8.32% to 4.95% as of that filing. Under SEC rules, a holder dropping below 5% may not file again, so the current position is unknown. BlackRock crossed the 5% threshold in July and held 7.2% as of its most recent 13G, making it the largest known institutional owner. The broader institutional base has been building: BlackRock added over 30 million shares in its latest reported period, and State Street added 9 million. Stakes are as last disclosed, and positions can change without further filings once they fall below the 5% threshold.
The next earnings event is scheduled for November 13. With short interest at 64% of float, zero borrow availability, a cost to borrow that has halved in six weeks, and the PCR retreating from its recent extreme, the setup heading into that print is whether the Q3 order momentum the company flagged in its bull case translates into a revenue figure that narrows the gap between analyst targets and where the stock actually trades.
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