Retail attention on LBRT spiked to 5.0 standard deviations above its 90-day average on September 27, per Wikipedia views and ORTEX page traffic. That surge in attention comes as short sellers dig in and a fresh Wall Street initiation adds a new voice to an already divided debate.
The attention spike, measured by ORTEX Alt Data, reflects public interest rather than a revenue indicator. But it coincides with a week in which short interest rose 17.5% to 10.4% of free float, the highest level since late August. Over the past month, short interest has climbed nearly 21%.
Scotiabank initiated coverage on September 29 with a Sector Perform rating and a $19 price target, almost exactly where the stock is trading. That is a notably cautious entry point versus Barclays' Overweight upgrade the prior day, which carried a $27 target. The two initiations in 48 hours point in different directions.
The mean analyst price target now stands at $28.61, against a closing price of $18.44. That is a large gap, but short sellers are clearly not convinced the stock closes it soon.
The put-call ratio pulled back to 0.45 on September 29 from a spike to 0.65 on September 28, which had been the highest reading in 52 weeks. The 52-week low is 0.19. Even at 0.45, the ratio sits modestly above the 20-day mean of 0.41. Options traders remain more cautious than they were through most of August and early September.
Despite the short interest build, the borrow market shows no stress. Availability stands at 1,050%, meaning there are roughly ten shares available to lend for every one already borrowed. Cost to borrow fell 29% over the past week to 0.36%. Shorts are not being squeezed out of their positions.
The bull-bear divide on the underlying business remains wide. Bears point to a core frac business losing pricing conviction, a $5 billion to $6 billion power capex plan with execution risk, and negative free cash flow expected through 2026. Bulls see the integrated pressure pumping franchise running near full utilization and the PowerBridge power generation joint venture as an underappreciated option.
Earnings are due October 21. The last print on July 22 sent the stock down more than 21% in a day.
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